Theory, Computers and the Parameterization of Demographic Behavior

Abstract

This is a story of two demographic models -their structure, rationale and interpretation, goodness of fit, and reception by demographers. The story raises interesting questions about demography -the structure of the discipline and its scientific community, attitudes toward theory and scientific methodology, and paths of future development. The two models are the Coale-McNeil (1972) and the Hernes (1972) models of first marriage. Developed at roughly the same time, the models have experienced rather different fates. The Coale-McNeil model has entered the standard repertoire of technical demography. It has been 'canonized,' as that term is used in a recent essay on culture by Griswold (1987) -that is, accepted by 'that elite group of specialists who may legitimately talk about value' (p. 11).The Hernes model, by contrast, was largely ignored by mainstream demography until recently. It is not mentioned in the United Nations Manual X in the section on 'Nuptiality Models,' and is mentioned only briefly if at all in many other treatments of marriage in recent demographic literature.Yet by ordinary scientific standards, the Hernes model does not seem inferior to Coale-McNeil. In some respects, it might even be judged a more elegant and wellrounded piece of scientific work. How can one explain its relative neglect? After a closer look at the two models, I return to this question below, suggesting that part of the answer lies in a predilection of mainstream demography for certain styles of work, with emphasis on measurement and the technical side of modelling, and a tendency to neglect issues of behavioral theory. More than is commonly realized, demography is two disciplines, one a branch of applied statistics dealing with population, the other a branch of social and behavioral science, focusing on This chapter is a slightly revised version of a paper presented at

Model-Based Demography

“…However, the Hernes model was largely ignored by demographers, with only a few exceptions, and the Coale-McNeil model became canonical. 3 I compared the two in a 1993 paper (Burch 1993. See also Chap.…”

Statistical methodology for estimating patters of demographic phenomena

“…Although the empirical assessment of Hernes' model is not very adequate, as indicated in the literature it has been confirmed the value of this model, especially in modeling the cohorts with completed marriage information (Burch, 1992;Martin, 2004). Niu (2005) notices the importance to apply the Hernes' model to non USA data and to societies where the traditional customs dictated the marriage such as in China.…”

“…Hernes' model (1972) is based on the concept of diffusion which captures the individual (psychological) and cultural effects on the process of entry into marriage. Compared with other nuptiality models, its merit of sociological and behavioural meaningfulness is most frequently appreciated (Burch, 1992;Coale and Trussell, 1996). Furthermore, inherent in its mathematical expression, the Hernes' model is also evaluated with its 'intuitively appealing' (Coale and Trussel, 1996), parsimony and tractability (Burch, 1992).…”