A Reader's Companion to Against Prediction: A Reply to Ariela Gross, Yoram Margalioth, and Yoav Sapir on Economic Modeling, Selective Incapacitation, Governmentality, and Race

Abstract

From parole prediction instruments and violent sexual predator scores to racial profiling on the highways, instruments to

Against Prevention? A Response to Harcourt's Against Prediction on Actuarial and Clinical Predictions and the Faults of Incapacitation

“…Once again Bernard Harcourt is directing his sharp arrows at a major trend in the criminal justice system. As he did with "broken windows policing" (Harcourt 2001), he is now critiquing the growing use of actuarial prediction methods for policing and sentencing purposes. Broken windows policing, he showed us, does not really reduce serious crime; rather, it leads to an uncritical dichotomy between "diorderly people" and law abiders, which masks tremendous costs, including police brutality and racial bias.…”

“…In the first chapter of the book, Harcourt (2007) visually displays the dramatic increase in use of prediction instruments in the context of parole. Found in only two states until the mid-1970s, prediction tools began to then be adopted by a growing number of states until, in 2004, twenty-eight states (72 percent of those with an active parole system) were found to use riskassessment tools to guide their parole decisions.…”

“…13 13 In his reply to this comment, Harcourt (2008, in this issue) explains that he is willing to make the exception for heinous crimes because “the ratchet effect” critique is a cost‐benefit analysis and the costs here are greater. This is, to a limited extent, a valid response as we are all willing to make sacrifices for the sake of preventing such crimes.…”

The Complex Climate Change Incentives of China and the United States

“…It is much more reasonable to think that China does not want to spend high costs for uncertain benefits. See China "Will Not Accept" Emisisons Limits (July 2007 successful international agreement is simple to describe: The major contributors to the problem must have a great deal to lose if the problem remains unsolved. The situation is more favorable still if two specific conditions are met: (a) from the standpoint of major contributors, unilateral action to reduce emissions is desirable and (b) the major contributors would gain even more from an international agreement than from unilateral action.…”

Neoliberal Penality: The Birth of Natural Order, the Illusion of Free Markets

“…When we look at the Chicago Board or the New York Stock Exchange, we do not see the intricate web of regulations regarding closing periods and trading hours, access, surveillance, and computer monitoring. We do not see Chicago Board Rules 1007.00, 350.05(h), 1007.02, and 425.02, proscribing afterhours trading, MCC conventions, and hedging rules. We see the free market at work.…”