A Recursive Approach to Long-Term Prediction of Monthly Precipitation Using Genetic Programming

Abstract

Precipitation is regarded as the basic component of the global hydrological cycle. This study develops a recursive approach to long-term prediction of monthly precipitation using genetic programming (GP), taking the Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR) in China as the study area. The daily precipitation data recorded at 29 meteorological stations during 1961-2014 are collected, among which the data during 1961-2000 are for calibration and the remaining data are for validation. To develop this approach, first, the preliminary estimations of annual precipitation are computed based on a statistical method. Second, the percentage of the monthly precipitation for each month of a year is calculated as the mean monthly precipitation divided by the mean annual precipitation during the study period, and then the preliminary estimation of monthly precipitation for each month of a year is obtained. Third, since GP can be used to improve the prediction results through establishing the relationship of the observations with the preliminary estimations at the past and current times, it is adopted to improve the preliminary estimations. The calibration and validation results reveal that the recursive approach involving GP can provide the more accurate predictions of monthly precipitation. Finally, this approach is used to predict the monthly precipitation over the TRHR till 2050. Overall, the proposed method and the obtained results will enhance our understanding and facilitate future studies regarding the long-term prediction of precipitation in such regions.

Numerical modelling to evaluate the nitrogen removal rate in hyporheic zone and its implications for stream management

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A Review of Genetic Programming: Popular Techniques, Fundamental Aspects, Software Tools and Applications

“…Hydrology: Hydrology is a branch of water science that widely needs predictions models. GP was widely used in hydrology applications such as precipitation prediction and measurement [123], Rainfall-Runoff modeling [124][125] groundwater quality prediction [126], evapotranspiration estimation [127] etc. A comprehensive review study focuses on GP applications in the field of hydrology [128].…”

Observed Microphysical Characteristics of Stratiform and Convective Precipitation over an Inland Arid Region of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

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