“…The underlying philosophy is based on Ansoff (1975), who first advocated the use of early warning or weak signals to manage unpredictable, dynamic and hence difficult to plan contexts, and Haeckel's (1999) sense and respond approach, that involves ones involve modeling the behaviour of system variables in statistical terms such as by fitting a probability distribution or a time series model and then monitoring deviations (vis-à-vis usual/normal behaviour), with an alarm being triggered in case of a specified threshold being breached (Basseville and Nikiforov, 1993;Garcia-Teodoro et al, 2009). Though successfully applied in manufacturing contexts for process and quality control (Montgomery, 2005), these techniques have not seen significant application at a supply chain level (MacCarthy and Wasusri, 2002), which could be due to challenges such as: 1) Difficulty in stochastic modelling of variables' dynamics for multistage systems such as supply chains (Batson and McGough, 2007;Tsung et al, 2008), 2) Difficulty in specifying thresholds due to the non-stationary nature of the supply chain variable profiles (from the continuous changes in the internal and external environment), 3) Involvement of a large number of system variables in a typical supply chain assessment, where these techniques are known to be less effective (Woodall and Montgomery, 1999), and 4) Difficulty in effecting optimal mitigative responses post-detection, as a 'disturbed'/'not-disturbed' kind of detection (rather than indication of the specific disturbance impacting a system) is provided by these techniques.…”