A review of the risks of sudden global cooling and its effects on agriculture

Engvild, Kjeld C.

doi:10.1016/s0168-1923(02)00253-8

Cited by 22 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…The impacts of such low-likelihood but severe events require careful investigation to inform the public and policy makers in view of nuclear proliferation and conflict. However, quantitative agricultural and economic impact assessments are lacking (5,18). Simplified studies for single crops (5,19) or individual locations in the United States or China (20)(21)(22) point to potentially large crop failures.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

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A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

Jägermeyr

Robock

Elliott

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 • C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30 • N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.food system shock | multiple breadbasket failure | cold temperature yield response | India-Pakistan conflict | global gridded crop model intercomparison (GGCMI)

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Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…1; see SI Appendix, Fig. S2 for spatial pattern), producing the coldest average surface temperature in the last 1,000 y (9,18,31).…”

Section: Climate Perturbations and Implications For Crop Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

Jägermeyr

Robock

Elliott

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Weather-related shocks are especially important because of crop sensitivity to weather extremes [7], including high [8] and low [9] temperatures, droughts [10], and floods [11]. Beyond these weather-related shocks, crop pests and pathogens [12,13], regional nuclear wars [14][15][16], agroterrorism [17], and epidemics [18] (including the ongoing Ebola outbreak) all represent potential future disruptions to the global food system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system

Puma

Bose

Chon³

et al. 2015

Environ. Res. Lett.

326

283

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The world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of the global food system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple food production and trade data from 1992-2009 to analyse the changing properties of the global food system. Over the 18 year study period, we show that the global food system is relatively homogeneous (85% of countries have low or marginal food self-sufficiency) and increases in complexity, with the number of global wheat and rice trade connections doubling and trade flows increasing by 42 and 90%, respectively. The increased connectivity and flows within these global trade networks suggest that the global food system is vulnerable to systemic disruptions, especially considering the tendency for exporting countries to switch to non-exporting states during times of food scarcity in the global markets. To test this hypothesis, we superimpose continental-scale disruptions on the wheat and rice trade networks. We find greater absolute reductions in global wheat and rice exports along with larger losses in network connectivity as the networks evolve due to disruptions in European wheat and Asian rice production. Importantly, our findings indicate that least developed countries suffer greater import losses in more connected networks through their increased dependence on imports for staple foods (due to these large-scale disturbances): mean (median) wheat losses as percentages of staple food supply are 8.9% (3.8%) for 1992-1996, increasing to 11% (5.7%) for 2005-2009. Over the same intervals, rice losses increase from 8.2% (2.2%) to 14% (5.2%). Our work indicates that policy efforts should focus on balancing the efficiency of international trade (and its associated specialization) with increased resilience of domestic production and global demand diversity.

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“…However, there remains significant uncertainty in future crop yields due to altered water and fertilizer application regimes, increased concentration of other greenhouse gases (e.g. tropospheric ozone), increased climatic extremes, and changing pest and disease prevalence (Cannon 1998;Ewert et al 2002;Engvild 2003;Fuhrer 2003) etc. It is therefore difficult to predict overall effects of an increase in CO 2 , temperature and other variables, as the result depends on the relative effects of variables in the particular combination occurring for a given region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling China’s potential maize production at regional scale under climate change

et al. 2007

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With the continuing warming due to greenhouse gases concentration, it is important to examine the potential impacts on regional crop production spatially and temporally. We assessed China's potential maize production at 50×50 km grid scale under climate change scenarios using modelling approach. Two climate changes scenarios (A2 and B2) and three time slices (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) produced by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model were used. Rain-fed and irrigated maize yields were simulated with the CERES-Maize model, with present optimum management practices. The model was run for 30 years of baseline climate and three time slices for the two climate change scenarios, without and with simulation of direct CO 2 fertilization effects. Crop simulation results under climate change scenarios varied considerably between regions and years. Without the CO 2 fertilization effect, China's maize production was predicted to suffer a negative effect under both A2 and B2 scenarios for all time slices, with greatest production decreases in today's major maize planting areas. When the CO 2 fertilization effect is taken into account, production was predicted to increase for rain-fed maize but decrease for irrigated maize, under both A2 and B2 scenarios for most time periods.

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A review of the risks of sudden global cooling and its effects on agriculture

Cited by 22 publications

References 82 publications

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system

Modelling China’s potential maize production at regional scale under climate change

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