A Risk Analysis Based Framework for Strategic Mine Planning and Design—Method and Application

Godoy, M.

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-69320-0_7

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Areas with large variation limits in plant and depth can be used to define potential targets for additional drilling (Godoy, 2009). Thus, this great fluctuation limits results from a high variability provided by the absence or small amount of information.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporation of geological uncertainty in pit optimization with geostatistics simulation

Souza

Cabral

2017

REM, Int. Eng. J.

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Risk mapping processes in mine planning and ore recovery are constantly used in the mining industry to increase decision making certainty based on the available information. However, it is not possible to predict the risk behavior in all of the project's boundary conditions and small variations in some of these conditions can cause a great impact on its financial return. Among the countless uncertainties existing in a mining project (operational, costs, market change), many authors define the geological uncertainty as the most critical one, capable of influencing the success of the project. Measurement and evaluation of the geological uncertainty of a mine planning project is crucial because the calculated risk can be translated into a financial risk of the project. This article presents a possible way to consider the geological uncertainty in the pit optimization step by using sequential Gaussian simulation. The results obtained from the case study on a copper deposit results in a simple procedure with significant increase in reliability for the project.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporation of geological uncertainty in pit optimization with geostatistics simulation

Souza

Cabral

2017

REM, Int. Eng. J.

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“…The AusIMM volume, Advances in Applied Strategic Mine Planning (Dimitrakopoulos 2018), provides an overview of developments over the intervening decade since Osanloo et al (2008) and Newman et al (2010). One of its main topics is how conditional geostatistical simulations can be incorporated into mine planning (Osterholt and Dimitrakopoulos 2018;Benndorf and Dimitrakopoulos 2018;Menabde et al 2018;Dimitrakopoulos et al 2019;Khosrowshahi et al 2018;Godoy 2018;Dowd and Dare-Bryan 2018;Tavchandjian et al 2018;Jewbali and Dimitrakopoulos 2018;Froyland et al 2018;Jewbali et al 2018;Richmond 2018;Robins 2018). More recently, this has continued to be an important research topic.…”

Section: Stochastic Optimisation Applied To Mine Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Constructing Branching Trees of Geostatistical Simulations

Armstrong¹,

Valencia

Lagos

et al. 2021

Math Geosci

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This paper proposes the use of multi-stage stochastic programming with recourse for optimised strategic open-pit mine planning. The key innovations are, firstly, that a branching tree of geostatistical simulations is developed to take account of uncertainty in ore grades, and secondly, scenario reduction techniques are applied to keep the trees to a manageable size. Our example shows that different mine plans would be optimal for the downside case when the deposit turns out to be of lower grade than expected compared to when it is of higher grade than expected. Our approach further provides the probabilities of these outcomes; that is, the idea is to move toward adaptive mine planning rather than just producing a single mine plan.

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“…The results show that the proposed methodology can improve the expected value of the project and to control the risk of losses caused by deviation of production objectives, changing the decisions about pit limits and production schedules and, consequently, impact the financial outcomes. This work follows the line of other contributions that have incorporated the geological uncertainty into open-pit design and planning, such as [41,42], but, unlike these papers, this work additionally incorporates simulations on geometallurgical attributes (not only grades, but also recovery and mill throughput), and it makes use of non-traditional approach based on stochastic direct block scheduling algorithms. Therefore, this work provides mine planning and design engineers a step-by-step procedure to assess the impact of geometallurgical variability on mine planning studies through modern DBS techniques, contrary to traditional approach based on nested pits.…”

Section: Contribution Of the Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporation of Geometallurgical Attributes and Geological Uncertainty into Long-Term Open-Pit Mine Planning

Morales

Seguel²,

Cáceres³

et al. 2019

Minerals

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Long-term open-pit mine planning is a critical stage of a mining project that seeks to establish the best strategy for extracting mineral resources, based on the assumption of several economic, geological and operational parameters. Conventionally, during this process it is common to use deterministic resource models to estimate in situ ore grades and to assume average values for geometallurgical variables. These assumptions cause risks that may negatively impact on the planned production and finally on the project value. This paper addresses the long-term planning of an open-pit mine considering (i) the incorporation of geometallurgical models given by equiprobable scenarios that allow for the assessing of the spatial variability and the uncertainty of the mineral deposit, and (ii) the use of stochastic integer programming model for risk analysis in direct block scheduling, considering the scenarios simultaneously. The methodology comprises two stages: pit optimization to generate initial ultimate pit limit per scenario and then to define a single ultimate pit based on reliability, and stochastic life-of-mine production scheduling to define block extraction sequences within the reliability ultimate pit to maximize the expected discounted value and minimize the total cost of production objective deviations. To evaluate the effect of the geometallurgical information, both stages consider different optimization strategies that depend on the economic model to be used and the type of processing constraints established in the scheduling. The results show that geometallurgical data with their associated uncertainties can change the decisions regarding pit limits and production schedule and, consequently, to impact the financial outcomes.

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A Risk Analysis Based Framework for Strategic Mine Planning and Design—Method and Application

Cited by 10 publications

References 2 publications

Incorporation of geological uncertainty in pit optimization with geostatistics simulation

Incorporation of geological uncertainty in pit optimization with geostatistics simulation

Constructing Branching Trees of Geostatistical Simulations

Incorporation of Geometallurgical Attributes and Geological Uncertainty into Long-Term Open-Pit Mine Planning

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