A Risk Elimination Coordination Method for Large Group Decision-Making in Natural Disaster Emergencies

Abstract

In view of the risk characteristics of large group decision-making in emergencies and the difficultly in forming the decision scheme with low risk, the causes of generating risk in urgent group decisions are analyzed. The coordination framework for risk elimination in emergency decisions is constructed. The methods of risk measure and elimination for emergency decisions are proposed to construct the risk elimination coordination mechanism for emergency decisions so that the risk of emergency group decisions is gradually constringed to obtain the emergency decision scheme with risk degree low enough. Finally, an example case is used to validate the realization process and the validity of risk elimination coordination method and mechanism.

A prospect theory-based interval dynamic reference point method for emergency decision making

“…The abovementioned literature review shows that existing studies mainly are concerned with approaches that deal with incomplete or inadequate information in EDM situations (Ergu et al,2014;Fu et.al, 2012;Levy and Taji, 2007;Xiong and Li, 2011;Zhao et al,2007) or that select the ideal emergency alternatives (Ergu et al, 2011;Hämäläinen et al, 2000;Ju et al, 2015;Körte, 2003;Maio et al, 2011;Mendonça et.al, 2000;Millar et al, 2002;Sun et al, 2013;Xu et al, 2015;Yang and Xu, 2012;Zhou et al, 2014;). As is generally known, the psychological behavior of DMs plays an important role in emergency response.…”

“…With regard to the risk characteristics of decision making by large groups in emergencies and difficulties forming decision schemes with low risk, Xu et al (2015) provided methods of risk measure and elimination for emergency decisions to construct coordination frameworks and risk elimination coordination mechanisms for emergency decisions. Mo et al (2015) developed an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic integer programming model for urban water resource planning under uncertainty.…”

Cognitive Identity Management: Risks, Trust and Decisions using Heterogeneous Sources

“…The final risk assessment of the decision regarding the subject is negation, or consensus between the states (agents). The theoretical framework of such approach is known as the group decision making [59], [60].…”

“…How to model security screening in conditions when the role of intelligent supporting tools becomes critical [56], [58]; We accept Haykin's concept of cognitive dynamical systems [25], and developed a multi-state cognitive identity management process; How to measure risks and trust in the cognitive identity management [57], [60], [63]; We accept the Pearl's concept of the causality in cognitive dynamic systems [42] and developed the computational platform that combines various probabilistic measures of causal reasoning; and How to exploit available approaches and resources for risk and trust analysis [12], [13], [54]; We accept the probabilistic notion of risk and trust [10], [47], we defined the fundamental operations on risk and trust, and demonstrate how they are implemented in the proposed computational model.…”

A New Approach to the Fine Kinney Method with AHP Based ELECTRE I and Math Model on Risk Assessment for Natural Disasters

“…However, assessment of the risks caused by natural disasters is known as the most important step to take precautions instead of preventing natural disasters. Luchuan (1999) and Xu et al, (2015) deals with risk assessment in a region for natural disasters. Emblemsvåg (2008) conducts risk analysis for a region in Norway for rock falls from natural disasters.…”