A role of the Atlantic Ocean in predicting summer surface air temperature over North East Asia?

Monerie, Paul‐Arthur; Robson, Jon; Dong, Buwen; Dunstone, Nick

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3935-z

Cited by 49 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 107 publications

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“…It should be noted, however, that the wave train excited over North Atlantic Ocean have been suggested as the secondary role in affecting CGT pattern, which is mediated by Indian summer Monsoon, while it appears that this wave train plays primary and direct role in affecting Z‐wave. Previous studies also highlighted the role of North Atlantic Ocean in affecting East Asian climate by triggering Rossby wave that propagates eastward, which is consistent with the present study (Lin et al, ; Monerie et al, ; Wu et al, ).…”

Section: Dynamical Features Of the Two Types Of Korean Heat Wavesupporting

confidence: 93%

Two Types of Heat Wave in Korea Associated With Atmospheric Circulation Pattern

2019

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This study investigates heat wave variability over Korea during 1979‐2017. It is found that most of heat waves in Korea can be classified into two distinct types based on the spatial patterns of atmospheric circulation anomalies: the zonal wave (Z‐wave) type and the meridional wave (M‐wave) type. The Z‐wave type is accompanied by large‐scale atmospheric waves across the Eurasian continent, while the M‐wave type is associated with convective activities over the subtropical western North Pacific. The Z‐wave type occurs when the high‐pressure node of eastward propagating wave located around Korea and it seems that the associated wave energy could originate from North Atlantic Ocean. The M‐wave type, on the other hand, is driven by northward propagating wave train from subtropical western North Pacific to East Asia, which is triggered by anomalous convective activity over the subtropical western North Pacific. By analyzing thermodynamical as well as dynamical variables, detailed descriptions on the physical characteristics of two types of heat wave are presented in this study along with the possible implications for summer climate variability over Korea.

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Section: Dynamical Features Of the Two Types Of Korean Heat Wavesupporting

confidence: 93%

Two Types of Heat Wave in Korea Associated With Atmospheric Circulation Pattern

2019

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“…The signal-to-noise paradox Although individual weather events cannot be predicted more than a couple of weeks ahead, slowly varying predictable components of the climate system, including ocean variability and changes in radiative forcing from greenhouse gases, aerosols and solar variations, influence the frequency, duration and intensity of weather events over the coming seasons to years. Hence some aspects of climate, for example, multi-year atmospheric circulation changes, 24,25 the frequency of extreme weather events 26 and total amounts of rainfall, 27 are potentially predictable over the coming decade. Such forecasts will not be perfectly deterministic because uncertainties are inevitable due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, and errors will be introduced by imperfect climate models and imperfect knowledge of the initial state of the climate system.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robust skill of decadal climate predictions

et al. 2019

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There is a growing need for skilful predictions of climate up to a decade ahead. Decadal climate predictions show high skill for surface temperature, but confidence in forecasts of precipitation and atmospheric circulation is much lower. Recent advances in seasonal and annual prediction show that the signal-to-noise ratio can be too small in climate models, requiring a very large ensemble to extract the predictable signal. Here, we reassess decadal prediction skill using a much larger ensemble than previously available, and reveal significant skill for precipitation over land and atmospheric circulation, in addition to surface temperature. We further propose a more powerful approach than used previously to evaluate the benefit of initialisation with observations, improving our understanding of the sources of skill. Our results show that decadal climate is more predictable than previously thought and will aid society to prepare for, and adapt to, ongoing climate variability and change.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2019)2:13 ; https://doi.

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“…This is an indication that SST fluctuations in the SPG region play a role in SAT variations in SCAN and NEA via the circumglobal wavetrain, whereas the connection of central United States SAT to SPG temperature could be connected to other mechanisms like heat advection. Because the robust connection of SAT variations in SCAN and NEA to the North Atlantic (Årthun et al, 2017;Monerie et al, 2017) is generally in line with published literature, we will henceforth focus our analysis on these two regions alongside EU for comparison.…”

Section: North Atlantic Influence On Northern Hemisphere Satmentioning

confidence: 70%

“…For North Atlantic SST variations, we use average SST in the subpolar gyre (SPG), defined as a weighted area average in 80-0 • W, 50-70 • N (gray box in Figures 1c and 1d). We examine extremely warm summers in central Europe (EU: 0-35 • E, 45-52 • N; as in Duchez et al, 2016a), northern Europe and Scandinavia (SCAN: 10-50 • E, 50-65 • N), and NEA (90-130 • E, 40-50 • N, as in black, red, and cyan boxes in Figures 1c and 1d, respectively; Monerie et al, 2017). These regions were constructed to cover mostly land surface to minimize direct influence of the underlying ocean on the results.…”

Section: Postprocessingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…SAT variations in Europe were shown to be connected to North Atlantic SST (Gastineau & Frankignoul, 2015;Ghosh et al, 2016;Sutton & Hodson, 2005) through an atmospheric Rossby wave, the so-called circumglobal wavetrain. The wave originates over the North Atlantic and communicates surface temperature signals to Europe and further downstream, up to northeast Asia (NEA) (Monerie et al, 2017). The wavetrain is commonly identified in geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa but can also be found in other parameters such as SLP.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Warm Summer Temperature Extremes

Borchert

Pohlmann

Baehr

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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We use a decadal prediction system with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 version of the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model to predict the probability of occurrence for extremely warm summers in the Northern Hemisphere. An assimilation run with Max Planck Institute Earth System Model shows a robust response of summer temperature extremes in northern Europe and northeast Asia to North Atlantic sea surface temperature via a circumglobal Rossby wavetrain. When the North Atlantic is warm, warm summer temperature extremes occur with a probability of 20% and 24% in northern Europe and northeast Asia, respectively. In a cold North Atlantic phase, these probabilities are 0% and 8%. A similar difference in probability of occurrence is found in the initialized climate predictions. Consequently, the likelihood of a warm summer temperature extreme occurring in the examined regions in the next 10 years can be inferred from predictions of North Atlantic temperature. Plain Language Summary Extremely warm summers can have a substantial impact onsociety. Trustworthy predictions of such events several years ahead could help in anticipating the extremes and managing their impacts. In this study, we show that the probability with which a warm summer temperature extreme occurs in northern Europe and northeast Asia can be linked to the surface temperature of the North Atlantic ocean. We further show that North Atlantic ocean surface temperature and the connection between ocean temperature and extreme summer temperature can be predicted. As a result, the probability for extremely warm summers to occur in northern Europe and northeast Asia in the next 10 years can be predicted.

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A role of the Atlantic Ocean in predicting summer surface air temperature over North East Asia?

Abstract: skill in predicting SAT over Northeast Asia. Increased temperatures and precipitation over the western Pacific Ocean was found to be associated with a Pacific-Japan like-pattern, which can affect East Asia's climate.

Cited by 49 publications

References 107 publications

Two Types of Heat Wave in Korea Associated With Atmospheric Circulation Pattern

Two Types of Heat Wave in Korea Associated With Atmospheric Circulation Pattern

Robust skill of decadal climate predictions

Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Warm Summer Temperature Extremes

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