A scenario analysis of Chinese carbon neutral based on STIRPAT and system dynamics model

Wen, Lei; Zhang, Jie; Song, Qianqian

doi:10.1007/s11356-022-19595-z

Cited by 29 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…In comparison, the driving effect of the PCA from 2001 to 2020 was relatively weak, with the contribution rate of basically less than 10%. This was mainly because the overall natural carbon sink in China has remained stable in the past 20 years, with a slight increase year by year, and the forest and grassland carbon sinks selected in this paper were huge but grew slowly, mainly from historical stocks (Wen at al. 2022).…”

Section: The Effect Of the Driving Factors Of The Cep In China's Ener...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In terms of STIRPAT model application, Zhang et al (2020) analyzed the peak carbon dioxide in China's Yunnan Province through the regression analysis of population, wealth, and technology (STIRPAT) and the long-term energy replacement planning system (LEAP) model. Wen et al (2022) analyzed China's carbon neutrality scenarios based on STIRPAT and system dynamics models and found 8 pathways that were in line with China's current goal of achieving carbon neutrality. simulated and predicted carbon emissions in major regions of China based on the STIRPAT and ARIMA models.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis on the dynamic evolution of the equilibrium point of “carbon emission penetration” for energy-intensive industries in China: based on a factor-driven perspective

Liu

Wei

2022

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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In order to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, energy-intensive industries in China, as the main sectors of energy consumption and carbon emissions, had huge pressure to reduce emissions. In addition, the reduction of vegetation area led to a decline in carbon sink capacity, which further exacerbated the imbalance of mutual penetration between carbon source and carbon sink. Therefore, this article considered the role of carbon source and carbon sink and defined and calculated the “carbon emission penetration” (CEP) of the six energy-intensive industries from 2001 to 2020. The KAYA formula and the LMDI method were used to decompose the driving factors of CEP in the three aspects of scale, intensity, and structure. The combined model of STIRPAT and the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) was used to simulate and analyze the equilibrium points of energy-intensive industries in China from the perspective of factor driving. The analysis results indicated that there were differences in the fluctuation trend of CEP in the six energy-intensive industries, which can be divided into three types: “two-stage growth,” “steady growth,” and “single peak.” Secondly, the driving factors from the three aspects of scale, intensity, and structure—emission intensity (CE), energy consumption intensity (EI), industrial structure (IS), economic scale (GP), and carbon sequestration scale (PCA)—had differences in industry and time dimensions. And the realization time of the CEP equilibrium points of six industries showed a three-level gradient feature significantly. This can provide some reference for the low-carbon transformation of six energy-intensive industries and optimization of China’s environmental management under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Graphical abstract

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Section: The Effect Of the Driving Factors Of The Cep In China's Ener...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis on the dynamic evolution of the equilibrium point of “carbon emission penetration” for energy-intensive industries in China: based on a factor-driven perspective

Liu

Wei

2022

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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“…The current situation in the Chinese pulp and paper industry is challenging as carbon emissions exceed the target, creating difficulty in realizing the goal of carbon peak and carbon net-zero [1][2][3] . Hence, it is imperative to realize the "integration of forest and pulp".…”

Section: Rheological Properties and Volumetric Isothermal Expansivity...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Desilication agent is added before the BKBL enters the recovery boiler, OPEN 1 College of Bioresources Chemical and Materials Engineering, Shaanxi University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710021, China. 2 National Demonstration Center for Experimental Light Chemistry Engineering Education, Shaanxi University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710021, China. 3 Key Laboratory of Paper Based Functional Materials, China National Light Industry, Shaanxi University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710021, China.…”

Section: Rheological Properties and Volumetric Isothermal Expansivity...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Rheological properties and volumetric isothermal expansivity of bamboo kraft black liquor with high solids content and low lignin content

Chen

Guo

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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In this study, a certain percentage of lignin in original bamboo kraft black liquor (BKBL) was separated, and the residual BKBL with low lignin content was expected to be fed into the alkali recovery boiler to reduce the heat transfer load of the alkali recovery boiler. With the decrease in lignin content, the rheological properties/volumetric isothermal expansivity (VIE) of BKBL change. When the lignin content was 70% remaining in the original BKBL, the viscosity of BKBL with low lignin content is close to that of the passivated BKBL at the same solids content, the dynamic viscoelasticity is superior, and the VIE decreases by 57.2%. When the amount of desilication agent is 1.5%, the viscosity of BKBL with low lignin content did not change much, and the VIE increased sharply and was 62.7% higher than that of the passivated BKBL. Therefore, the combination of partial lignin separation process and sodium aluminate desilication process can effectively improve the ability of alkali recovery boiler to deal with BKBL and reduce the influence of “silicon interference”.

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“…This poses a major challenge to achieving carbon balance in karst areas. In addition, scholars have evaluated and made some progress in determining the CE intensities (CEI) of countries [ 18 ], regions [ 19 , 20 ], provinces [ 21 ], and cities [ 22 ], but relevant studies on the cities and counties in Guizhou are scarce. Therefore, we chose Guizhou Province as the study area and systematically addressed the above problems to provide demonstration models and technical guidelines for similar scientists worldwide.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A carbon-neutrality-capacity index for evaluating carbon sink contributions

Bai

Zhang

et al. 2023

Environmental Science and Ecotechnology

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A scenario analysis of Chinese carbon neutral based on STIRPAT and system dynamics model

Cited by 29 publications

References 31 publications

Analysis on the dynamic evolution of the equilibrium point of “carbon emission penetration” for energy-intensive industries in China: based on a factor-driven perspective

Analysis on the dynamic evolution of the equilibrium point of “carbon emission penetration” for energy-intensive industries in China: based on a factor-driven perspective

Rheological properties and volumetric isothermal expansivity of bamboo kraft black liquor with high solids content and low lignin content

A carbon-neutrality-capacity index for evaluating carbon sink contributions

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