A search for evidence of secondary static stress triggering during the 1992 Mw7.3 Landers, California, earthquake sequence

Meier, Men‐Andrin; Werner, Maximilian J.; Woessner, J.; Wiemer, Stefan

doi:10.1002/2013jb010385

Cited by 47 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 81 publications

(148 reference statements)

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“…The response of the −ΔCFS seismicity in Region III (Figure h) is especially enigmatic: it shows an immediate increase at the time of the Ocotillo event, inconsistent with the simple CFS predictions, although this elevated rate then drops below the pre‐Ocotillo Omori prediction some 20 days after Ocotillo, which is indicative of a delayed stress shadow effect. These results suggest that considering individual receiver focal mechanisms does not improve our ability to evaluate the relationship between static stress and seismicity, which is consistent with previous studies (Cattania et al, ; Meier et al, ; Segou & Parsons, ).…”

Section: Coulomb Stress Modelingsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…We find that separation of events based on the sign of the ΔCFS when computed on their focal plane solutions does not significantly improve the correlation of seismicity rate changes and the sign of the calculated static stress change in Region III. This is consistent with Meier et al () who found that the sign of ΔCFS is often flipped when the static stresses are computed on nodal planes of focal mechanisms that have been randomly perturbed within their errors. This suggests that considering focal mechanism uncertainty will not improve any subdivision of an event distribution based on the sign of the ΔCFS.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Delayed Seismicity Rate Changes Controlled by Static Stress Transfer

et al. 2017

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On 15 June 2010, a Mw5.7 earthquake occurred near Ocotillo, California, in the Yuha Desert. This event was the largest aftershock of the 4 April 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor‐Cucapah (EMC) earthquake in this region. The EMC mainshock and subsequent Ocotillo aftershock provide an opportunity to test the Coulomb failure hypothesis (CFS). We explore the spatiotemporal correlation between seismicity rate changes and regions of positive and negative CFS change imparted by the Ocotillo event. Based on simple CFS calculations we divide the Yuha Desert into three subregions, one triggering zone and two stress shadow zones. We find the nominal triggering zone displays immediate triggering, one stress shadowed region experiences immediate quiescence, and the other nominal stress shadow undergoes an immediate rate increase followed by a delayed shutdown. We quantitatively model the spatiotemporal variation of earthquake rates by combining calculations of CFS change with the rate‐state earthquake rate formulation of Dieterich (1994), assuming that each subregion contains a mixture of nucleation sources that experienced a CFS change of differing signs. Our modeling reproduces the observations, including the observed delay in the stress shadow effect in the third region following the Ocotillo aftershock. The delayed shadow effect occurs because of intrinsic differences in the amplitude of the rate response to positive and negative stress changes and the time constants for return to background rates for the two populations. We find that rate‐state models of time‐dependent earthquake rates are in good agreement with the observed rates and thus explain the complex spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity.

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Section: Coulomb Stress Modelingsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Delayed Seismicity Rate Changes Controlled by Static Stress Transfer

et al. 2017

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“…These uncertainties include the finite fault model, earthquake distribution, focal depth, and focal mechanism solutions. The nodal plane uncertainties add random noise to the stress change estimates and systematically reduce a potentially large coulomb index [11]. It is difficult to perfectly explain the complex geological phenomenon by only the coulomb stress triggering hypothesis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Coulomb stress triggering of moderate-to-large earthquakes has been observed in the US [4,[11][12][13], in Europe [14][15][16], on the Sunda Trench [17][18][19], and in Japan [20][21][22][23][24][25]. However, in South America and Ecuador, the stress triggering theory has yet to be extensively studied [26][27][28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strong Aftershock Study Based on Coulomb Stress Triggering—A Case Study on the 2016 Ecuador Mw 7.8 Earthquake

Wu¹,

Cai²,

et al. 2017

Applied Sciences

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Abstract:The 2016 Ecuador M 7.8 earthquake ruptured the subduction zone boundary between the Nazca plate and the South America plate. This M 7.8 earthquake may have promoted failure in the surrounding crust, where six M ≥ 6 aftershocks occurred following this mainshock. These crustal ruptures were triggered by the high coulomb stress changes produced by the M 7.8 mainshock. Here, we investigate whether the six M ≥ 6 aftershocks are consistent with the positive coulomb stress region due to the mainshock. To explore the correlation between the mainshock and the aftershocks, we adopt a recently published high-quality finite fault model and focal mechanisms to study the coulomb stress triggers during the M 7.8 earthquake sequence. We compute the coulomb failure stress changes (∆CFS) on both of the focal mechanism nodal planes. We compare the ∆CFS imparted by the M 7.8 mainshock on the subsequent aftershocks with the epicenter location of each aftershock. In addition, the shear stress, normal stress, and coulomb stress changes in the focal sources of each aftershock are also computed. Coulomb stress changes in the focal source for the six M ≥ 6 aftershocks are in the range of −2.17-7.564 bar. Only one computational result for the M 6.9 aftershock is negative; other results are positive. We found that the vast majority of the six M ≥ 6 aftershocks occurred in positive coulomb stress areas triggered by the M 7.8 mainshock. Our results suggest that the coulomb stress changes contributed to the development of the Ecuador M 7.8 earthquake sequence.

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“…However, if other independent constraints on either of the two parameters are available, they can be combined with the estimates in much the same way that we combine estimates from multiple stations (equation 5). There are numerous candidate constraints that could be used in this sense: parameter estimates from other EEW algorithms that run in parallel, distance estimates from a real-time location algorithm (e.g., based on the concept of not-yet-arrived data; Zhou, 1994;Cua and Heaton, 2007;Satriano et al, 2008), S-P onset times t S−P , the waveform-based distance estimation method of Odaka et al (2003), or distance priors from seismicity observations (e.g., Kagan and Knopoff, 1981;Meier et al, 2014) and from proximity to mapped faults. Because distance and magnitude uncertainties are inherently coupled, any constraint that reduces the distance uncertainty will also reduce magnitude uncertainties.…”

Section: Enhancing Magnitude Estimates With Additional Parameter Consmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Gutenberg Algorithm: Evolutionary Bayesian Magnitude Estimates for Earthquake Early Warning with a Filter Bank

Meier¹,

Heaton²,

Clinton³

2015

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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Earthquake early warning (EEW) is a race against time. In particular, at proximal sites to the epicenter (typically the most heavily affected sites), strong ground motion starts shortly after the P-wave onset. For these sites, regional-type EEW systems that wait until data from several stations are available before issuing a warning and that require fixed data windows following a trigger are not fast enough. Single-station algorithms, on the other hand, have high uncertainties that compromise their usefulness. In this article, we propose that uncertainties of the earliest warning messages can be reduced substantially if the broadband frequency information of seismic signals is fully exploited. We present a novel probabilistic algorithm for estimating EEW magnitudes. The Gutenberg algorithm uses a filter bank for a time-frequency analysis of the realtime signals and estimates the posterior probabilities of both magnitude and sourcestation distance directly from the observed frequency content. It starts off as a singlestation algorithm and then naturally evolves into a regional-type algorithm, as more data become available. Using an extensive near-source waveform data set, we demonstrate that the Gutenberg parameter estimates reach the estimation accuracy and precision of existing regional-type EEW systems with only 3 s of data from a single station. The magnitude estimates, however, saturate at a threshold magnitude that depends on the available signal length that is used for the estimation, suggesting that current EEW magnitude estimates (1) are observational rather than predictive and (2) have to be considered minimum estimates, depending on the amount of available data.

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A search for evidence of secondary static stress triggering during the 1992 M_w7.3 Landers, California, earthquake sequence

Cited by 47 publications

References 81 publications

Delayed Seismicity Rate Changes Controlled by Static Stress Transfer

Delayed Seismicity Rate Changes Controlled by Static Stress Transfer

Strong Aftershock Study Based on Coulomb Stress Triggering—A Case Study on the 2016 Ecuador Mw 7.8 Earthquake

The Gutenberg Algorithm: Evolutionary Bayesian Magnitude Estimates for Earthquake Early Warning with a Filter Bank

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