A Sensitivity Study of Storm Surges Under the Conditions of Climate Change in the Elbe Estuary

Schulte-Rentrop, Annette; Rudolph, Elisabeth

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-31110-9_18

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Although the ATP approach is relatively new, it has been used in several other studies, such as flood risk management in the city of Rotterdam [52], nature restoration in the Rhine basin and wine production in Italy [53], risk management in New Zealand [54], and risk management in the Elbe basin [55]. The adaptation pathways approach was extensively tested using a hypothetical case called "the Waas" [45,[56][57][58].…”

Section: Adaptation Tipping Points and Adaptation Pathwaysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

2013

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Abstract:There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers dealing with robustness and adaptive plans have begun to appear, but the literature is fragmented. The papers appear in disparate journals, and deal with a wide variety of policy domains. This paper (1) describes and compares a family of related conceptual approaches to designing a sustainable plan, and (2) describes several computational tools supporting these approaches. The conceptual approaches all have their roots in an approach to longterm planning called Assumption-Based Planning. Guiding principles for the design of a sustainable adaptive plan are: explore a wide variety of relevant uncertainties, connect short-term targets to long-term goals over time, commit to short-term actions while keeping options open, and continuously monitor the world and take actions if necessary. A key computational tool across the conceptual approaches is a fast, simple (policy analysis) model that is used to make large numbers of runs, in order to explore the full range of uncertainties and to identify situations in which the plan would fail. OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2013, 5 956

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Section: Adaptation Tipping Points and Adaptation Pathwaysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

2013

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Sediment Deposition and Accretion Rates in Tidal Marshes Are Highly Variable Along Estuarine Salinity and Flooding Gradients

Butzeck

Eschenbach²,

Gröngröft³

et al. 2014

Estuaries and Coasts

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Vertical accretion in estuarine marshes depends on rates of sediment deposition and is a complex function of different interacting variables. In times of climate change and associated sea-level rise, knowledge about the relation between these variables and sediment deposition and accretion rates is gaining high importance. Therefore, we studied spatial and temporal variation in short-term sediment deposition rates and its possible predictors in three marsh types along an estuarine salinity gradient. Between March 2010 and March 2011, bi-weekly sediment deposition was quantified along three transects, reflecting the variability in elevation (low to high marsh) and distance to the sediment source, in each of one tidal freshwater, brackish, and salt marsh at the Elbe Estuary (Germany). Simultaneously, water-level fluctuations and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) were recorded, and aboveground plant biomass was sampled once in late summer and once by the end of winter, respectively. Annual sediment deposition (17.5 ± 4.0 kg m−2) and calculated accretion rates (20.3 ± 4.7 mm year−1) were highest in the brackish low marsh and were between 51 and 71 % lower in the low tidal freshwater and the salt marsh, respectively. Highest SSC and longest inundations were found during fall and winter. Flooding duration and frequency were higher in the tidal freshwater than in the brackish and the salt marsh. Aboveground, plant biomass of the regularly flooded vegetation stratum (0–50 cm above soil surface) did not differ between marsh types, but the spatial pattern changed between late summer and early spring. In all three marsh types, decreasing sediment deposition rates with increasing distances from the sedimentation source were recorded. The applied multiple regression models were able to explain 74, 79, and 71 % of variation in sediment deposition patterns in tidal freshwater, brackish, and salt marshes, respectively. SSC was the most important model predictor variable. Our results emphasize the importance of considering spatial and temporal variations in sediment deposition rates and its predictors. According to our findings, sediment deposition rates in the investigated tidal low marshes of the Elbe Estuary seem to be sufficient to compensate moderate rates of sea-level rise. Contrastingly, high salt marshes might be vulnerable due to insufficient input of sediment and might regress into low marshes, partly

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A Sensitivity Study of Storm Surges Under the Conditions of Climate Change in the Elbe Estuary

Cited by 2 publications

References 5 publications

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

Sediment Deposition and Accretion Rates in Tidal Marshes Are Highly Variable Along Estuarine Salinity and Flooding Gradients

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