A severe thunderstorm climatology for Australia and associated thunderstorm environments

Allen, John T.; Karoly, David J.; Mills, Graham A.

doi:10.22499/2.6103.001

Cited by 78 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…MUCAPE is the index determining the instability energy computed for an air parcel at the most unstable isobaric level (the level at which the CAPE index has the highest value in the analyzed profile). It is used in thunderstorm detection as an index that is less sensitive to fluctuations in surface moisture and the boundary layer environment than CAPE, which considers buoyancy over the depth of the atmosphere (Lombardo and Colle 2010;Allen et al 2011).…”

Section: Mucape As a Predictor For Thunderstorm Occurrencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Data derived from a model does not contain information on a specific thunderstorm occurrence; it may however be used for determining conditions that favor thunderstorm occurrences over a given area, which has been confirmed by numerous works in this field (e.g., Marsh et al 2007Marsh et al , 2009Trapp et al 2007Trapp et al , 2010Lombardo and Colle 2010;Allen et al 2011;Gensini et al 2014a). Of course, one needs to approach results with a certain dose of criticism towards analytical errors resulting from errors in observational data and errors that follow the implemented method of modeling (Thorne and Vose 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Use of RegCM gridded dataset for thunderstorm favorable conditions analysis over Poland—climatological approach

Walawender

Kielar

Ustrnul

2015

Theor Appl Climatol

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The paper analyzes equivalent data for a low density meteorological station network (spatially discontinuous data) and poor temporal homogeneity of thunderstorm observational data. Due to that, a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) dataset was tested. The Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy index value (MUCAPE) above the 200 J kg −1 threshold was selected as a predictor describing favorable conditions for the occurrence of thunderstorms. The quality of the dataset was examined through a comparison between model results and soundings from several aerological stations in Central Europe. Good, statistically significant (0.05 significance level) results were obtained through correlation analysis; the value of Pearson's correlation coefficient was above 0.8 in every single case. Then, using methods associated with gridded climatology, data series for 44 weather stations were derived and an analysis of correlation between RegCM modeled data and in situ thunderstorm observations was conducted with coefficients in the range of 0.75-0.90. The possibility of employing the dataset in thunderstorm climatology analysis was checked via a few examples by mapping monthly, seasonal, and annual means. Moreover, longterm variability and trend analysis along with modeled MUCAPE data were tested. As a result, the RegCM modeled MUCAPE gridded dataset was proposed as an easily available, suitable, and valuable predictor for thunderstorm climatology analysis and mapping. Finally, some limitations are discussed and recommendations for further improvements are given.

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Section: Mucape As a Predictor For Thunderstorm Occurrencementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of RegCM gridded dataset for thunderstorm favorable conditions analysis over Poland—climatological approach

Walawender

Kielar

Ustrnul

2015

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…A combination of indices is usually used to identify favourable conditions for severe convective storm environments, for example Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition (CIN) and 0-6 km Bulk Wind Difference (BWD)/deep-layer wind shear (e.g. Rasmussen and Blanchard 1998;Craven et al 2002;Brooks et al 2003;Allen et al 2011;Gensini and Ashley 2011). However, as cautioned by Doswell III and Schultz (2006), there are no specific thresholds that discriminate perfectly between severe and non-severe environments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Brooks et al 2003), Australia (e.g. Allen et al 2011) and in some cases, such analysis has been extended onto a global scale (e.g. Brooks et al 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A climatology of potential severe convective environments across South Africa

et al. 2016

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“…Hail events likely produce dissimilar categories of damages to the natural environment and often disastrous consequences upon people in the region Allen et al, 2011). Severe hailstorms are localized events which could affect smaller areas and are responsible for everlasting damages (Alford, 1994;Johnson et al, 1995).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%