A simple and fast algorithm for estimating the capacity credit of solar and storage

Abstract

This is a pre-print version of an article published in Energy.

Are coupled renewable-battery power plants more valuable than independently sited installations?

“…In the other regions, we do not use region-specific capacity accreditation rules for coupled projects, because such rules are still under development [57]. Previous research indicates that average production during the peak net load hours can be a reasonable approximation of the reliability contribution of variable resources and coupled projects [39,58]. Hence, in this study, the capacity value is calculated by multiplying the same hourly power generation profile by a capacity price as well as an indicator variable for whether that particular hour of the year is within the top 100 net load hours for each specific market (Eq.…”

“…This literature rarely evaluates coupled technologies, focusing instead on standalone battery system value. A few recent studies have begun to explore the value of coupled projects but do not correspondingly evaluate how these emerging configurations compare to the independent system value of standalone configurations, especially considering the broad geographic context of current market-based generator investments [37][38][39][40]. Denholm finds that PV-storage coupled projects can be more or less profitable than independent configurations depending on constraints considered, but analyzes only a single location in California [41].…”

Comparing Capacity Credit Calculations for Wind: A Case Study in Texas

“…At higher PV contributions, choosing the top 10 net load hours gave a closer approximation by 2%-5% (Stephen, Hale, and Cowiestoll 2020). Other case studies for both solar PV (with and without storage) and concentrating solar power in the United States find CF approximation methods to be close to full reliabilitybased methods (Madaeni, Sioshansi, and Denholm 2013, Madaeni, Sioshansi, and Denholm 2012, Mills and Rodriguez 2020, Heath and Figueroa-Acevedo 2018. Existing work evaluating CC calculations for wind energy is more sparse.…”

“…Two main methods are used to estimate CC 1 : reliability-based and approximation-based methods (Sioshansi, Madaeni, and Denholm 2013). Reliability-based methods typically use resource adequacy models to calculate metrics such as the loss-of-load probability (LOLP) or expected unserved energy (EUE) given inputs such as hourly loads, generator information, and often transmission network data (Corporation 2018, Jorgenson et al 2021, Mills and Rodriguez 2020. These methods can calculate the CC of an incremental resource by computing the reliability metric before and after the addition of the new resource, with any change in the metric attributed to the incremental resource.…”

Evaluating Utility-Scale PV-Battery Hybrids in an Operational Model for the Bulk Power System

“…Given their computational efficiency, price-taker methods can be used to study how the value of PV-BES systems depends on the complex characteristics of the battery component. For example, recent research has explored how PV-BES value varies when using different battery dispatch algorithms (Gorman et al 2020;Mills and Rodriguez 2020), or the when considering the impact of nonlinear aspects of battery systems (e.g., voltage, current, and cycle degradation) (DiOrio, Denholm, and Hobbs 2020).…”