A Sociology of Expectations:Retrospecting Prospects and Prospecting Retrospects

Abstract

Future expectations and promise are crucial to providing the dynamism and momentum upon which so many ventures in science and technology depend. This is especially the case for pre-market applications where practical utility and value has yet to be demonstrated and where investment must sustained. For instance, clinical biotechnology (including a wide range of genetic therapeutic and engineering applications) has been at the centre of ferocious debates about whether or not promises and expectations will be realised. In some cases, the failure of expectations has severely damaged the reputation and credibility of professions, institutions and industry. The need for a better analytical understanding of the dynamics of expectations in innovation is both necessary and timely. This paper develops the basis for a sociology of expectations, drawing on recent writing within Science and Technology Studies (STS) and case studies of biotechnology innovation. In particular, we offer a model for understanding how expectations will predictably vary according to some key parameters. Such factors include the degree to which technologies and innovation relationships are either relatively established or newly emergent. Expectations will also vary according actors' relative closeness and involvement in knowledge production itself. The paper proceeds by analysing the way expectations in clinical biotechnology have changed over time. That is, we compare the way the future was once represented with the way it has been represented more recently. The paper concludes by offering a means by which it is possible to map or model the situatedness of expectations.2

La constitución de las políticas de investigación e innovación responsables: tensiones en la instrumentalización y la regulación

“…Se trata de algo intermedio, pero un análisis integral sobre el valor que tiene el sistema de investigación en la sociedad debe necesariamente medir también el impacto de la ciencia sobre otras dimensiones de la realidad socio-natural (Godin, 2010;Godin y Doré, 2005). 10 De hecho, cabe remarcar el rol que juegan las promesas y las expectativas en la formación y estímulo del cambio científico y tecnológico, en tanto que las abstracciones orientadas al futuro guían actividades, proporcionan estructuras y legitimación, atraen interés y fomentan inversión (Brown, 2003;Brown y Michael, 2003;Brown et al, 2006;Coenen y Simakova, 2013;Horst, 2007;Selin, 2007).…”

Tracking the evolution of new and emerging S&T via statement-linkages: Vision assessment in molecular machines

“…Due to the immaturity of many nanotechnology fields, expectations and promises play a dominant role by mobilising resources and action in the shaping of an emerging S&T. Over the last 10 years, the sociology of expectations has argued about the structuring of action by expectations, especially at early stages where the situation is fluid and there are opportunities to create new ties and positions ( VAN LENTE, 1993; VAN LENTE & RIP, 1998;BROWN & MICHAEL, 2003; VAN MERKERK & ROBINSON, 2006;BORUP et al, 2006). In nanotechnology, one can argue that expectations are particularly important, since resources are being mobilised into investing in nanotechnology based on promises rather than concrete products or proofs of principle, and in so doing structuring and guiding action.…”

“…We have drawn on the literature of sociology of expectations ( VAN LENTE, 1993; VAN LENTE & RIP, 1998;BROWN & MICHAEL, 2003; VAN MERKERK & ROBINSON, 2006;BORUP et al, 2006) and Vision Assessment GRUNWALD, 2004) to develop a classification of the modality of linkage from proof of concept through to science fiction.…”

Credibility and legitimacy in policy-driven innovation networks: resource dependencies and expectations in Dutch electric vehicle subsidies

“…Actors can use positive expectations about an emerging technology to substitute uncertainties around this technology (Brown and Michael 2003). From a resource dependence perspective this means that voicing credible positive expectations about an emerging technology can contribute to legitimizing the allocation of resources for further development of the technology.…”