A Spatial Analysis of Homicide Across Brazil’s Municipalities

Ingram, Matthew C.; Costa, Marcelo Marchesini da

doi:10.1177/1088767916666603

Cited by 29 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…For dissemination, Ingram and da Costa found evidence across most Brazilian regions for spatial dissemination, i.e. positive association in homicide rates among neighboring municipalities, but only using cross-sectional data from a single year (Ingram 2017 ). By contrast, Peres and Nivette used longitudinal methods and found that steep increases in a small number of municipalities explained a large proportion of the nationwide homicide increase from 1991 to 2010 (Peres and Nivette 2017 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping disparities in homicide trends across Brazil: 2000–2014

et al. 2020

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Background: Homicides are a major problem in Brazil. Drugs and arms trafficking, and land conflicts are three of the many factors driving homicide rates in Brazil. Understanding long-term spatiotemporal trends and social structural factors associated with homicides in Brazil would be useful for designing policies aimed at reducing homicide rates. Methods: We obtained data from 2000 to 2014 from the Brazil Ministry of Health (MOH) Mortality Information System and sociodemographic data from the Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). First, we quantified the rate of change in homicides at the municipality and state levels. Second, we used principal component regression and k-medoids clustering to examine differences in temporal trends across municipalities. Lastly, we used Bayesian hierarchical space-time models to describe spatio-temporal patterns and to assess the contribution of structural factors. Results: There were significant variations in homicide rates across states and municipalities. We noted the largest decrease in homicide rates in the western and southeastern states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo, which coincided with an increase in homicide rates in the northeastern states of Ceará,

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping disparities in homicide trends across Brazil: 2000–2014

et al. 2020

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“…For instance, shootings are frequent in places where other illicit activities, such as drug dealing, take place (Blumstein, 1995;Lum, 2008); open drug markets often entail violence as a consequence of the simultaneous presence of firearms, young dealers, suitable targets (both profitable street joints and large cash amounts), and intensive law enforcement (Chaiken & Chaiken, 1990;Reuter, 2009;Tonry, 1990). Furthermore, spatial proximity to episodes of violence and prior homicides help explain the concentration of interpersonal violence in specific locations (Ingram & Costa, 2016;Morenoff, Sampson, & Raudenbush, 2001). Community risk factors include the sociodemographic characteristics of the places where crime occurs.…”

Section: Organized Crime-and Gang-related Violencementioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Organized Crime Homicides: Risk Terrain Modeling of Camorra Violence in Naples, Italy

Dugato

Calderoni

Berlusconi

2017

J Interpers Violence

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Mafia homicides are usually committed for retaliation, economic profit, or rivalry among groups. The variety of possible reasons suggests the inefficacy of a preventive approach. However, like most violent crimes, mafia homicides concentrate in space due to place-specific social and environmental features. Starting from the existing literature, this study applies the Risk Terrain Modeling approach to forecast the Camorra homicides in Naples, Italy. This approach is based on the identification and evaluation of the underlying risk factors able to affect the risk of a homicide. This information is then used to predict the most likely location of future events. The findings of this study demonstrate that past homicides, drug dealing, confiscated assets, and rivalries among groups make it possible to predict up to 85% of 2012 mafia homicides, identifying 11% of city areas at highest risk. By contrast, variables controlling for the socio-economic conditions of areas are not significantly related to the risk of homicide. Moreover, this study shows that, even in a restricted space, the same risk factors may combine in different ways, giving rise to areas of equal risk but requiring targeted remedies. These results provide an effective basis for short-and long-term targeted policing strategies against organized crime-and gang-related violence. A similar approach may also provide practitioners, policy makers, and local administrators in other countries with significant support in understanding and counteracting also other forms of violent behavior by gangs or organized crime groups.

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“…This pattern is in line with what is observed in other studies, although, most of those studies are focused on a specific group or category of mortality from external causes (5, 19, 31–36). In the states of the South and Southeast regions, mortality from homicides increased between 1980 and 2000, while in Northern and Northeastern states, violent deaths rose more markedly after 2000 ( 31 – 34 ). At the state level, between 2001 and 2011 in all Northeastern states (except Pernambuco), homicide rates increased ( 31 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Distribution of Causes of Death for Small Areas in Brazil, 1998–2017

Baptista

Queiroz

Pinheiro

2021

Front. Public Health

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Background: What is the spatial pattern of mortality by cause and sex in Brazil? Even considering the main causes of death, such as neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, external causes, respiratory diseases, and infectious diseases, there are still important debate regarding the spatial pattern of mortality by causes in Brazil. Evidence shows that there is an overlap in transitional health states, due to the persistence of infectious diseases (e.g., dengue, cholera, malaria, etc.,) in parallel with the increase in chronic degenerative diseases. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of three groups of causes of death in Brazil across small areas from 1998 to 2017, by sex.Methods: We use publicly available data from the System Data Mortality Information (SIM-DATASUS) from 1998 to 2017. We focus on this period due to the better quality of information, in addition to all deaths are registered following the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). We estimate standardized mortality rates by sex and cause aggregated into three main groups. We use a ternary color scheme to maximize all the information in a three-dimensional array of compositional data.Results: We find improvements in mortality from chronic degenerative diseases; faster declines are observed in the Southern regions of the country; but the persistence of high levels of mortality due to infectious diseases remained in the northern parts of the country. We also find impressive differences in external causes of deaths between males and females and an increase in mortality from these causes in the interior part of the country.Conclusions: This study provides useful information for policy makers in establishing effective measures for the prevention of deaths and public health planning for deaths from external and non-communicable causes. We observed how the distribution of causes of death varies across regions and how the patterns of mortality also vary by gender.

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A Spatial Analysis of Homicide Across Brazil’s Municipalities

Cited by 29 publications

References 49 publications

Mapping disparities in homicide trends across Brazil: 2000–2014

Mapping disparities in homicide trends across Brazil: 2000–2014

Forecasting Organized Crime Homicides: Risk Terrain Modeling of Camorra Violence in Naples, Italy

Regional Distribution of Causes of Death for Small Areas in Brazil, 1998–2017

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