In 1960, the giant Valdivia earthquake (Mw 9.5), the largest earthquake ever recorded, struck the Chilean subduction zone, rupturing the entire depth of the seismogenic zone and extending for 1,000 km along strike. The first sign of new seismic energy release since 1960 occurred in 2017 with the Melinka earthquake (Mw 7.6), which affected only a portion of the deepest part of the seismogenic zone. Despite the recognition that rupture characteristics and rheology vary with depth, the mechanical controls behind such variations of earthquake size remain elusive. Here, we build quasi-dynamic simulations of the seismic cycle in Southern Chile including frictional and viscoelastic properties, drawing upon a compilation of geological and geophysical insights, to explain the recurrence times of recent, historic, and paleoseismic earthquakes and the distribution of fault slip and crustal deformation associated with the Melinka and Valdivia earthquakes. The frictional and rheological properties of the forearc, primarily controlled by the geological structure and distribution of fluids at the megathrust, govern earthquake size and recurrence patterns in Chile.
Article.Subduction zones produce 90% of the world's natural seismicity and host Earth's largest earthquakes accompanied by devastating tsunamis, outlying the key importance to understand subduction dynamics during the seismic cycle. This process is controlled by the structure of the accretionary prism and the fabric of the megathrust -the seismogenic interface that separates the down-going oceanic lithosphere from the upper plate. Earthquakes originate from a frictional instability at the plate interface, primarily affected by the lithology, temperature, and fluid content of the fault zone, leading to a stratification of source properties 1-3 . Numerous studies have shown variability in rupture width and slip of earthquakes in different depth domains, including great ruptures (moment magnitude Mw > 8.5) with a trench-breaking feature 4 , followed by blind and large ruptures (7 < Mw < 8.5) nucleated within the interseismically locked region as illustrated by paleoseismic and instrumental record at the Japan 5 , Sunda 6 , and Aleutian 7 trenches. The succession of large and great ruptures at the subduction megathrust modulates the size and frequency of earthquakes, but the underlying mechanics is uncertain.