A statistical cyclone intensity prediction (SCIP) model for the Bay of Bengal

Abstract

A statistical model for predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal has been proposed. The model is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. The model parameters are determined from the database of 62 cyclones that developed over the Bay of Bengal during the period 1981-2000. The parameters selected as predictors are: initial storm intensity, intensity changes during past 12 hours, storm motion speed, initial storm latitude position, vertical wind shear averaged along the storm track, vorticity at 850 hPa, Divergence at 200 hPa and sea surface temperature (SST). When the model is tested with the dependent samples of 62 cyclones, the forecast skill of the model for forecasts up to 72 hours is found to be reasonably good. The average absolute errors (AAE) are less than 10 knots for forecasts up to 36 hours and maximum forecast error of order 14 knots occurs at 60 hours and 72 hours. When the model is tested with the independent samples of 15 cyclones (during 2000 to 2007), the AAE is found to be less than 13 knots (ranging from 5.1 to 12.5 knots) for forecast up to 72 hours. The model is found to be superior to the empirical model proposed by Roy Bhowmik et al (2007) for the Bay of Bengal.

Analysis of cyclogenesis parameter for developing and nondeveloping low-pressure systems over the Indian Sea

“…The area used in the average of parameters varied in different studies; for example, McBride and Zehr (1981) used a radius of 6°, Franklin et al (1993) used a radius of 6°, Elsberry and Jeffries (1996) used an area within a radius of 3°, Zeng et al (2007) used a radius of 5°, and Kotal et al (2008) used a radius of 2.5°around storm centre for averaging the parameters. In this study, all the variables are estimated by averaging of all grid points within a circle of radius 2.5°around the centre of cyclonic system.…”

Distribution of particulate carbohydrate species in the Bay of Bengal

“…Similarly, along the Andaman-Kolkata transect, with the exception of station 8, POC concentration showed small variations. During all the seasons pumping of nutrients in near surface waters by eddies has been observed (PrasannaKumar, personal communication).Moreover, during WM (11-16 December 2003) cyclone was observed in western Bay of Bengal(Kotal et al 2008). These…”

A Dynamical Statistical Model for Prediction of a Tropical Cyclone

“…Various stages of cyclone forecasting are: (a) genesis, (b) track, and (c) intensity. In a series of recent studies, Kotal et al (2008Kotal et al ( , 2009aKotal et al ( , 2009b proposed an NWP-based objective method for handling various stages of cyclone forecasting over the Bay of Bengal. The method was applied for real-time forecasting of tropical cyclone Nargis of May 2008, and the performance results are presented in this paper.…”

“…However, a major limitation of the model is that it does not include any dynamical and physical parameters associated with the intensification process. To overcome this shortcoming, Kotal et al (2008) attempted a dynamical statistical model called Statistical Cyclone Intensity Prediction (SCIP), incorporating synoptic, dynamic, and thermodynamical parameters for predicting 12 hourly intensity (maximum sustained wind speed), valid up to 72 hours, for the Bay of Bengal. The model is developed applying multiple linear regression technique.…”

“…In this paper, the performance results of (i) genesis potential parameters of Kotal et al (2009a), (ii) track prediction by operational NWP models, and (iii) 12 hourly intensity prediction by the SCIP of Kotal et al (2008) are presented for the cyclone Nargis of May 2008.…”