A straightforward conceptual approach for evaluating spatial conservation priorities under climate change

Loyola, Rafael; Lemes, Priscila; Nabout, João Carlos; Trindade-Filho, Joaquim; Sagnori, Maíra Dalía; Dobrovolski, Ricardo; Diniz‐Filho, José Alexandre Felizola

doi:10.1007/s10531-012-0424-x

Cited by 64 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Due to the stochasticity of the algorithm, we used the selection frequency metric (SF) [17] to compare the outcomes of our analysis. This measure represents the number of times each site is selected in the solutions to the overall problem.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is worth noting that we settle the lower limit rank to 90 following the literature [17], but this value is arbitrarily defined and, depending on the context, can be relaxed assuming other lower reference values (e.g., considering cells ranking higher than 50 as important, instead of higher than 90).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the most known techniques for SCP are static, implicitly adopting the hypothesis that conserved biodiversity does not change throughout time [17]. However, this is not really accurate, and climate change analyses should be incorporated into conservation plans to more properly reflect the biodiversity dynamics [15].…”

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confidence: 99%

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A Multi-objective Optimization Approach Associated to Climate Change Analysis to Improve Systematic Conservation Planning

Schlottfeldt

Timmis

Walter

et al. 2015

Lecture Notes in Computer Science

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Abstract. Biodiversity conservation has been since long an academic community concern, leading scientists to propose strategies to effectively meet conservation goals. In particular, Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) aims to determine the most cost effective way of investing in conservation actions. SCP can be formalized by the Set-Covering Problem, which is NP-hard. SCP is inherently multi-objective, although it has been usually treated with a monobjective and static approach. Here, we propose a multi-objective solution for SCP, increasing its flexibility and complexity, and, at the same time, augmenting the quality of provided information, which reinforces decision-making. We used ensemble forecasting, considering future climate simulations to estimate species occurrence projected to 2080. Our method identifies sites: 1) of high priority for conservation; 2) with significant risk of investment; and, 3) that may become attractive in the future. To the best of our knowledge, this application to a real-world problem in ecology is the first attempt to apply multi-objective optimization to SCP associated to climate forecasting, in a dynamic spatial prioritization analysis for biodiversity conservation.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Multi-objective Optimization Approach Associated to Climate Change Analysis to Improve Systematic Conservation Planning

Schlottfeldt

Timmis

Walter

et al. 2015

Lecture Notes in Computer Science

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“…In parallel, some studies have focused on developing mitigation strategies, such as the selection of conservations areas for future climate scenarios (e.g. Loyola et al 2013) and international agreements for reducing greenhouse gases (for example, the Kyoto protocol).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using ecological niche models to predict the impact of global climate change on the geographical distribution and productivity of Euterpe oleracea Mart. (Arecaceae) in the Amazon

Vaz

Nabout

2016

Acta Bot. Bras.

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We assess the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution and productivity of Euterpe oleracea (Arecaceae), commonly called açaí. To construct the ecological niche model of E. oleracea, we used 95 points of occurrence, fi ve bioclimatic variables in current and future climate scenarios and Maxent software. Th e Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) was used to rank the ability of the models (considering ecological, socioeconomic and spatial variables) to explain the variation in productivity of E. oleracea among 200 municipalities. Th e maps showed that regions with higher environmental suitability for E. oleracea were concentrated in northern and northeastern Brazil, which was similar to the spatial pattern of productivity data of E. oleracea. Future climate conditions tend to promote an increase in the geographical distribution of this species, even though the new regions are in the arch of Amazon deforestation. Only space and the environmental suitability (indicated by the ecological niche model) were important for explaining the productivity of E. oleracea. Th at is, municipalities that are more productive are located in more suitable environmental regions. Th erefore, it is important to use niche models to explain demographic changes and to estimate species demographic attributes.

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“…These models can be useful, as they generate a measure of climate suitability (in different climate scenarios) that can be used as a predictor of demographic (Tôrres et al, 2012), genetic (Diniz-Filho et al, 2009) and ecological variables . In addition, it may be useful to know the geographic distribution of a species for potential conservation purposes (Loyola et al, 2013), phylogeographic studies (Collevatti et al, 2013), as well as the impacts of global climate change on the geographic distribution of native species and of cultivated species (Nabout et al, 2012a). The niche models are referred to using various nomenclature, such as the ecological niche model, geographic distribution model, potential distribution model, habitat niche model, species distribution model , bioclimatic envelope models (Araújo and Peterson, 2012), habitat suitability model, niche-based modeling and climate envelope modeling (Lobo et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and biases in global scientific literature about ecological niche models

2015

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Recently, ecological niche models have been employed to investigate the potential geographical distribution of species. However, it is necessary to analyze the vast number of publications on this topic to understand the trends and biases of research using ecological niche models (ENMs). Therefore, this study aims to investigate trends in the scientific literature regarding studies on ENMs. For the quantitative analysis of the literature on ENMs, we performed a search in the Thomson ISI (Web of Science) database between 1991 and 2013. The search identified 3042 papers containing preselected keywords in either the title or abstract. The results showed that the number of papers has increased over the years (r=0.77, P<0.001), with a sharp increase in recent years, highlighting the widespread use of the ENMs. There was an increase in the diversity of journals that published papers about ENMs (r=0.97, P<0.001). The research was conducted in different countries, predominantly the United States of America (550 papers), and the most commonly used method was the Maximum Entropy method (312 papers). Regarding the taxonomic group, most research has been conducted on plants (402 papers, or 28.36% of the total). There was no relationship between the modeling method used and the taxonomic group studied (χ 2 =4.8, P=0.15). Finally, the wide availability of biological, environmental and computational resources has elicited the broad use of tools for ENMs. Despite the conceptual discussions of the ENMs, this method is currently the most effective way to evaluate the potential geographical distribution of species, and to predict the distribution under different environmental conditions (i.e., future or past scenarios).Keywords: scientometric, species distribution model, Maximum Entropy. Tendências e vieses na literatura científica mundial sobre modelos de nicho ecológico ResumoRecentemente, modelos de nicho têm sido empregados para investigar a distribuição geográfica potencial de espécies. Porém, é necessário analisar a vasta quantidade de publicações sobre o referido tema, a fim de compreender as tendências e vieses das pesquisas que usam modelos de nicho ecológico (MNEs). Portanto, esse trabalho tem por objetivo investigar as tendências da literatura científica de trabalhos sobre MNEs. Para a análise quantitativa das publicações sobre MNEs, foi realizada uma busca na base de dados Thomson ISI (Web of Science), entre o período de 1991 a 2013. A pesquisa agrupou 3042 documentos que continham nas palavras-chave, no título ou no resumo os termos selecionados para a busca. Os resultados mostraram que de forma geral o número de artigos tem aumentado ao longo dos anos (r=0,77, P<0,001), com um acentuado crescimento nos anos mais recentes, destacando o amplo uso de MNEs. Ao longo dos anos percebeu-se um aumento da diversidade de revistas que publicam sobre o assunto (r=0,97, P<0,001). As pesquisas têm sido desenvolvidas em diferentes países, com predomínio dos Estados Unidos (550 artigos) e o método mais utilizado foi o de Máxi...

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A straightforward conceptual approach for evaluating spatial conservation priorities under climate change

Cited by 64 publications

References 52 publications

A Multi-objective Optimization Approach Associated to Climate Change Analysis to Improve Systematic Conservation Planning

A Multi-objective Optimization Approach Associated to Climate Change Analysis to Improve Systematic Conservation Planning

Using ecological niche models to predict the impact of global climate change on the geographical distribution and productivity of Euterpe oleracea Mart. (Arecaceae) in the Amazon

Trends and biases in global scientific literature about ecological niche models

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