A study on change in dynamics of population and change in intention to choose a residence place by the COVID-19

Tsuboi, Shirou; Mimura, Yasuhiro; Yamazaki, Motohiro; Suzuki, Yu; Nishihori, Yasuhide

doi:10.11361/journalcpij.56.1405

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Accordingly, the COVID‐19 pandemic accelerated the traditional movement patterns from the centre to the suburbs within the TMA (Watanabe, 1978 ), indicating a new urban sprawl threat (Tsuboi et al, 2021 ). While the MER of the suburb of the TMA increased, the stream‐specific MERs indicate that the suburbs received much net gain from their centre.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to the increase of keen interest in residential relocation to provincial areas in TMA reported by the Cabinet Office ( 2021 ), Teng ( 2022 ) reported that young adults’ working environment, income and psychological status were significantly worsened by the COVID‐19 pandemic and that these changes were related to their migration intentions from Tokyo. In addition, Tsuboi et al ( 2021 ) pointed out changes in residential preference from before to after the COVID‐19 pandemic, such as increased interest in residing in the suburbs, in the case of Toyota city, a provincial city.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends in internal migration in Japan, 2012–2020: The impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic

Kotsubo

Nakaya

2022

Population Space and Place

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In the past 10 years or so, there have been growing concerns in Japan that migration trends, such as large in‐migration to the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) at the national scale and large movements from the suburbs to the centres at the metropolitan scale, have widened the core–periphery disparities at each scale under national population decline. However, the COVID‐19 pandemic led to unexpected changes in these migration patterns, such as a weakened population concentration in the TMA. This study aims to examine internal migration trends from 2012, on axes of core–periphery in Japan and centre–suburbs in metropolitan areas, and the changes in the migration patterns caused by the pandemic in 2020. First, we prepared intermunicipal origin–destination tables by estimating the suppressed flows in 2012–2020 using the iterative proportional fitting technique, and then we calculated the net migration and migration efficiency indices based on seven area types: centre and suburbs of the TMA, centres and suburbs of major metropolitan areas, centres and suburbs of other metropolitan areas and nonmetropolitan areas. The results indicate that the 2020 migration efficiency in the centre of the TMA drastically dropped to the lowest level during the study period, contrasting with an upward trend in 2012–2019. The pandemic strongly affected the migration patterns from/to and within the TMA, with much net gain in the suburbs from the centre, but the impact of migration efficiencies among the other areas was minimal. These findings can help in providing direction for the postpandemic policy challenge of spatial planning in Japan, for example, the weakened but still widening disparities between the TMA and the other regions and the renewed threat of urban sprawl caused by the increased migration from the centre to the suburbs within the TMA.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in internal migration in Japan, 2012–2020: The impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic

Kotsubo

Nakaya

2022

Population Space and Place

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Urban exodus or suburbanisation? Medium-term COVID-19 pandemic impacts on internal migration in Japan

Kotsubo,

Nakaya

2024

GeoJournal

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The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected internal migration patterns worldwide. Most previous studies have reported on pandemic-induced changes in internal migration using data from 2020 and 2021. Therefore, little is known about the pandemic’s medium-term impact. To address this gap, this study investigated an annual series of migration patterns from 2019 to 2023 in Japan. At the municipal level, relationships between net migration rates and population density indicated that the urbanisation trend became weak in 2020, compared to that in 2019, and it was the weakest in 2021. The urbanisation degree became stronger in 2023, increasing to the level in 2020. Using annual inter-municipal migration flows, this study then investigated changes in migration flows to/from and within three major metropolitan areas (Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka). The changes in sizes of these flows and migration effectiveness index suggested that the pandemic had the largest impact in the Tokyo metropolitan area, among the three areas, and it stimulated intra-metropolitan migration as suburbanisation, rather than net out-migration as ‘urban exodus’, in Japan. The overall results indicated that the pandemic had the largest impact in 2021, which got smaller as the migration patterns recovered to the pre-pandemic ones in 2023.

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Changes in Determinants of Population Change in Local Districts Under the Covid-19 Pandemic

Shiozaki

Asami

Hino

et al. 2023

Transactions of AIJ

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Using a linear mixed model and geographically weighted regression, we analyzed changes in the relationship between regional population change and land use or accessibility indicators under the COVID-19 pandemic. The results showed that population concentration in the city center was eased in 2020 and 2021, and that migration and settlement in existing residential areas increased temporarily, especially in 2020. In addition, the closer the area was to the nearest station, the more the population still increased, and access to commodity shopping facilities became less attractive.

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A study on change in dynamics of population and change in intention to choose a residence place by the COVID-19

Cited by 3 publications

References 2 publications

Trends in internal migration in Japan, 2012–2020: The impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic

Trends in internal migration in Japan, 2012–2020: The impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic

Urban exodus or suburbanisation? Medium-term COVID-19 pandemic impacts on internal migration in Japan

Changes in Determinants of Population Change in Local Districts Under the Covid-19 Pandemic

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