A subregional analysis of family change: The spatial diffusion of one‐parent families across Italian municipalities, 1991–2011

Caltabiano, Marcantonio; Dreassi, Emanuela; Rocco, Emilia; Vignoli, Daniele

doi:10.1002/psp.2237

Cited by 15 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Second, we included the percentage of workers with a temporary job over the total number of workers in each province (e.g., Barbieri et al, 2015 ; Vignoli et al, 2012 ). We also controlled our estimates for the accumulation of human capital per province, proxied by the percentage of residents with at least a tertiary education qualification (e.g., Caltabiano et al, 2019 ). These last two indicators were computed from the European Labour Force Survey, which is a comparative large-sample survey designed for collecting high-quality labour market data.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, the diffusion of tertiary education and (women’s) labour force participation, and the increased concentration of employment in the industrial sector, is most prevalent in the north of Italy (Caltabiano et al, 2019 ). Given this well-known regional divide between the centre–north and south of Italy, we segmented these areas to test whether there is a different effect of ECI level on TFR variations between the north and south.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic complexity and fertility: insights from a low fertility country

2021

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This paper analyzes the relationship between a new indicator of economic context, economic complexity (EC), and fertility change in Italian provinces between 2006 and 2015. We hypothesize that the level of EC is associated with fertility as it reflects a territory's capacity to innovate, grow and create job opportunities. The results illustrate a clear positive association between EC and fertility change across Italian provinces for the period considered, net of traditional fertility predictors. Those areas that stand at the frontiers of EC are also more likely to dominate and adapt to the negative consequences of globalization.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic complexity and fertility: insights from a low fertility country

2021

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“…Billari (2008) related the shift toward a partly unexpected SDT to higher fertility rates in the case of Spain, too. All in all, recent fertility trends represent a challenge for Southern Europe as well (Comolli 2017;Caltabiano et al 2019), as countries like Spain and Italy were deemed to have bounced back for good from lowest-low fertility rates (Billari and Dalla Zuanna 2008).…”

Section: Economic Uncertainty As a Game-changer For European Fertilitmentioning

confidence: 99%

A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework

Vignoli

Guetto

Bazzani

et al. 2020

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The generalized and relatively homogeneous fertility decline across European countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession poses serious challenges to our knowledge of contemporary low fertility patterns. In this paper, we argue that fertility decisions are not a mere “statistical shadow of the past”, and advance the Narrative Framework, a new approach to the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility. This framework proffers that individuals act according to or despite uncertainty based on their “narrative of the future” – imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions. We also posit that personal narratives of the future are shaped by the “shared narratives” produced by socialization agents, including parents and peers, as well as by the narratives produced by the media and other powerful opinion formers. Finally, within this framework, we propose several empirical strategies, from both a qualitative and a quantitative perspective, including an experimental approach, for assessing the role of narratives of the future in fertility decisions.

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“…More specifically, we assumed that the spatial distribution of population in Southern Europe has mainly reflected a typical urban-rural divide with accelerated growth of metropolitan areas typical of the late phase of the first demographic transition [27,35,36]. The second transition has represented a much more heterogeneous regime progressively decoupled from traditional geographical gradients [37][38][39]. A comprehensive analysis of population growth rates at the municipal scale from time series (1861-2017) census data was developed with the aim at testing this hypothesis, in turn controlling for population density, past demographic dynamics, and basic territorial characteristics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond the Transition: Long-Term Population Trends in a Disadvantaged Region of Southern Europe, 1861–2017

2021

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The long-term impact of demographic transitions on the spatial distribution of human settlements was occasionally evaluated in Europe. Assuming the distinctive role of urban–rural divides, our study investigates local-scale population trends (1861–2017) in Southern Italy, a disadvantaged region of Mediterranean Europe, as a result of long-term socioeconomic transformations. A quantitative analysis of municipal-scale population data based on descriptive and exploratory multivariate statistics, mapping, inferential approaches, and regression models identified four time intervals with distinctive demographic dynamics: (i) a spatially homogeneous population growth between 1861 and 1911, (ii) a moderate population increase rebalancing a traditional divide in coastal and internal areas (1911–1951), (iii) accelerated population growth enlarging spatial divides in urban and rural districts (1951–1981), and (iv) population stability (or slight decline) leading to heterogeneous demographic patterns since the early 1980s. The first three stages reflect a prolonged transition from high fertility and mortality to high fertility and low mortality, with accelerated population growth typical of the latest stage of the first demographic transition. Outcomes of time interval (iv) reflect the early stages of the second demographic transition, with lowest-low fertility and rising life expectancy. While the first transition reflected spatially homogeneous population trends along a considerable time spam, the second transition has been associated with heterogeneous (leapfrog) demographic patterns as a result of socially mixed (and spatially) fragmented dynamics of growth and change.

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A subregional analysis of family change: The spatial diffusion of one‐parent families across Italian municipalities, 1991–2011

Cited by 15 publications

References 69 publications

Economic complexity and fertility: insights from a low fertility country

Economic complexity and fertility: insights from a low fertility country

A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework

Beyond the Transition: Long-Term Population Trends in a Disadvantaged Region of Southern Europe, 1861–2017

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