Linear-mixed models are frequently used to obtain model-based estimators in small area estimation (SAE) problems. Such models, however, are not suitable when the target variable exhibits a point mass at zero, a highly skewed distribution of the nonzero values and a strong spatial structure. In this paper, a SAE approach for dealing with such variables is suggested. We propose a two-part random effects SAE model that includes a correlation structure on the area random effects that appears in the two parts and incorporates a bivariate smooth function of the geographical coordinates of units. To account for the skewness of the distribution of the positive values of the response variable, a Gamma model is adopted. To fit the model, to get small area estimates and to evaluate their precision, a hierarchical Bayesian approach is used. The study is motivated by a real SAE problem. We focus on estimation of the per-farm average grape wine production in Tuscany, at subregional level, using the Farm Structure Survey data. Results from this real data application and those obtained by a model-based simulation experiment show a satisfactory performance of the suggested SAE approach.

Technetium-99m-labelled, non-specific, polyclonal, human immunoglobulin G (99mTc-hIG) has been used to quantify synovial inflammation in rheumatoid arthritis. A comparison was carried out between the scintigraphic results obtained with this tracer, 99mTc-hexamethylpropylene amine oxime-labelled white blood cells (99mTc-WBC) and 99mTc-albumin nanocolloids (99mTc-NC). Twenty patients affected by rheumatoid arthritis and suffering from clinically active synovitis were studied with 99mTc-hIG. The number and sites of the involved joints had been previously assessed on the basis of the presence of pain and/or swelling. A radiological examination had already been carried out on all the joints. Two days after the 99mTc-hIG scan, 10 patients (group 1) underwent 99mTc-WBC scintigraphy and the other 10 (group 2) underwent a 99mTc-NC scan. The results show that the results of 99mTc-hIG and 99mTc-NC scans are in agreement with clinical examinations in the majority of cases. However, a certain number of positive joint scans corresponding to negative clinical examinations was found. The numerical distribution of these results according to the radiological stages seems to show that 99mTc-hIG is more useful than 99mTc-NC in the initial phases of the disease. The 99mTc-WBC scan was negative in a consistent percentage of the joints previously assessed as clinically and 99mTc-hIG scan positive.

This paper documents the expansion of new family patterns in Italy by scrutinising the spatial diffusion of one‐parent families across Italian municipalities for the period 1991–2011. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to the data of the last three Italian Population Censuses, acknowledging that variation cannot be broken down into temporal and spatial effects because space–time interaction is at the very heart of family changes. Our results illustrate substantial subregional and sub‐provincial heterogeneities in the spatial organisation of family systems, patterns that might have gone undetected had larger territorial units of analysis been considered. In addition, we show that especially socio‐economic factors were associated to the diffusion of new family forms. This paper challenges international scholarship that caricatures Italy as a monolithic, homogeneous family‐oriented country.

Facing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic requires intensive testing on the population to early identify and isolate infected subjects. During the first emergency phase of the epidemic, RT-qPCR on nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs, which is the most reliable technique to detect ongoing infections, exhibited limitations due to availability of reagents and budget constraints. This stressed the need to develop screening procedures that require fewer resources and are suitable to be extended to larger portions of the population. RT-qPCR on pooled samples from individual NP swabs seems to be a promising technique to improve surveillance. We performed preliminary experimental analyses aimed to investigate the performance of pool testing on samples with low viral load and we evaluated through Monte Carlo (MC) simulations alternative screening protocols based on sample pooling, tailored to contexts characterized by different infection prevalence. We focused on the role of pool size and the opportunity to develop strategies that take advantage of natural clustering structures in the population, e.g. families, school classes, hospital rooms. Despite the use of a limited number of specimens, our results suggest that, while high viral load samples seem to be detectable even in a pool with 29 negative samples, positive specimens with low viral load may be masked by the negative samples, unless smaller pools are used. The results of MC simulations confirm that pool testing is useful in contexts where the infection prevalence is low. The gain of pool testing in saving resources can be very high, and can be optimized by selecting appropriate group sizes. Exploiting natural groups makes the definition of larger pools convenient and potentially overcomes the issue of low viral load samples by increasing the probability of identifying more than one positive in the same pool.

When the target variable exhibits a semicontinuous behaviour (i.e. a point mass in a single value and a continuous distribution elsewhere) parametric 'two-part regression models' have been extensively used and investigated. In this paper, a semiparametric Bayesian two-part regression model for dealing with such variables is proposed. The model allows a semiparametric expression for the two part of the model by using Dirichlet processes. A motivating example (in the 'small area estimation' framework) based on pseudo-real data on grapewine production in Tuscany, is used to evaluate the capabilities of the model. Results show a satisfactory performance of the suggested approach to model and predict semicontinuous data when parametric assumptions (distributional and/or relationship) are not reasonable.