What explains the democratic deficit and authoritarian persistence in the Middle East? An overview and critique of the cumulative layers of theoretical tradition that seeks to explain democratic and non-democratic outcomes provides a wealth of tools for understanding the Middle East case. Early modernization theory's analysis of 'requisites' proved indeterminate and cultural exceptionalist arguments identified merely an intervening variable. Later theories of developmental imbalances and nation-building dilemmas explained more convincingly why democracy failed in the Middle East. Historical sociology, in identifying the social structural bases of alternative regime paths, showed what put Middle East states on their own distinctive authoritarian pathways. Institutionalist approaches to state-building helped explain the consolidation of authoritarian regimes in the region while political-economy analysis showed how these regimes adapted to changes in their environment. Rational choice approaches help show why the agency to lead democratic transitions has been lacking. Analyses of the impact of globalization and of the United States hegemon suggest the international variable is compatible with liberalization of authoritarian regimes but not with democratization.
The Debate on Democratization StudiesAfter a decade in which democratization studies were on the cutting edge, the wheel has turned again with growing claims that the 'third wave' is exhausted, 1 the transition paradigm misguided 2 and the democratization bandwagon bogged down in the quicksands of so-called hybrid or semi-or pseudo-democratic regimes. 3 Nowhere would the relevance of democratization theory seem more questionable than in the Middle East. Some have always regarded the region as exceptionally culturally resistant to democratization 4 and the Middle East's early liberal regimes quickly gave way to seemingly durable authoritarianism after independence. Yet, many scholars identified a growing demand for democratization and some movement towards it in the 1990s. 5 Since then, however, the reversal of (timid) democratization experiments, although not for cultural reasons, has been documented by Kienle, and by Ehteshami and Murphy. 6 Maye Kassem and William Zartman have shown how, paradoxically, party pluralization can reinforce authoritarian rulers. 7 Pool warned early on that enforcement of economic liberalization and austerity might require authoritarian Raymond Hinnebusch is Deputy Director of the Institute of Middle East, Central Asia and Caucasus Studies and