A three-dimensional groundwater flow model of the Waterloo Moraine for water resource management

Meyer, Patricia A.; Brouwers, Martinus; Martin, Paul J.

doi:10.1080/07011784.2014.914800

Cited by 17 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…This study demonstrates that the Orangeville Moraine, deposited within the same late-glacial interlobate zone as the welldocumented Waterloo Moraine (e.g., Bajc and Karrow 2004;Bajc and Shirota 2007;Bajc et al 2014;Frind et al 2014;Meyer et al 2014), has similar stratigraphic and sediment characteristics and may be expected to have equally complex groundwater flow conditions (Bajc et al 2014). Buried and partially buried bedrock valleys within the study area contain thick sequences of gravel and sand separated by silt, clay, and diamicton (Greenhouse and Karrow 1994;Burt and Rainsford 2010;) that have the potential to form protected producing aquifers similar to those investigated within the Dundas buried bedrock valley (Marich et al 2011;Bajc et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 51%

Three-dimensional hydrostratigraphy of the Orangeville Moraine area, southwestern Ontario, Canada

Burt

2018

Can. J. Earth Sci.

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Regional-scale three-dimensional modelling of Quaternary sediments in the Orangeville Moraine area of southwestern Ontario has been completed as part of the Ontario Geological Survey groundwater initiative and provides an improved understanding of the glacial history and conceptual hydrostratigraphic framework for that region. Older (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3-5) diamicton, glaciolacustrine, glaciofluvial, and rare nonglacial deposits forming regional aquitards and local aquifers are found in the northwestern part of the area. Catfish Creek Till, deposited during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (MIS 2), forms a key aquitard and stratigraphic marker at depth. Diamicton, fine-textured glaciolacustrine sediments, and the gravel, sand, and silt conduit and subaqueous fan sediments that constitute the overlying Orangeville Moraine were deposited in an ice-walled lake formed between ice lobes during retreat from the LGM. Diamicton deposited during late-glacial ice margin fluctuations forms the upper aquitard unit and buries the edges of the moraine. The Orangeville Moraine is the largest aquifer in the area, and is partially confined by the upper tills. Thick fine-textured glaciolacustrine deposits, Catfish Creek Till, and older aquitards separate the moraine from bedrock aquifers across most of the area. Depending on hydraulic gradients, buried bedrock valleys with gravel and sand fills have the potential to recharge the bedrock aquifer.Résumé : La modélisation tridimensionnelle régionale de sédiments quaternaires dans la région de la moraine d'Orangeville du sud-ouest de l'Ontario a été réalisée dans le cadre de l'initiative relative aux eaux souterraines de la Commission géologique de l'Ontario et améliore la compréhension de l'histoire glaciaire et du cadre hydrostratigraphique conceptuel pour cette région. Des diamictons, des dépôts glaciolacustres et fluvioglaciaires et de rares dépôts non glaciaires plus anciens (stades isotopiques marins (SIM) 3-5) formant des aquitards régionaux et des aquifères locaux sont présents dans la partie nord-ouest de la région. Le till de Catfish Creek, déposé durant le dernier maximum glaciaire (DMG) (SIM 2), forme un important aquitard et marqueur stratigraphique en profondeur. Des diamictons, des dépôts glaciolacustres à texture fine et les dépôts de conduit de gravier, de sable et de silt et les sédiments de cône subaquatique composant la moraine d'Orangeville sus-jacente ont été déposés dans un lac à parois de glace formé entre des lobes glaciaires durant le recul consécutif au DMG. Du diamicton déposé durant des fluctuations de la marge glaciaire associées au dernier maximum glaciaire forme l'unité d'aquitard supérieure et recouvre les bordures de la moraine. La moraine d'Orangeville constitue le plus grand aquifère dans la région et est partiellement confinée par les tills supérieurs. Des dépôts glaciolacustres à texture fine, le till de Catfish Creek et des aquitards plus anciens séparent la moraine des aquifères du socle rocheux dans la majeure partie de la régi...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 51%

Three-dimensional hydrostratigraphy of the Orangeville Moraine area, southwestern Ontario, Canada

Burt

2018

Can. J. Earth Sci.

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“…Source locations and flow pathways will also be more poorly constrained compared to a PT‐Monte‐Carlo based framework (Enzenhoefer et al ). While PT based on a single flow simulation can be used as an initial screening tool, our study, together with previous work (Tonkin and Doherty ; Herckenrath et al ; Enzenhoefer et al ; Meyer et al ; Alberti et al ; Frind and Molson ; among others), highlights that model results and hence water resource management decisions should not be based on only one model realization; rather, an uncertainty analysis should be carried out to provide simulations within the range of all likely system states, including uncertainties in the hydraulic K distribution, which can then be used to identify potential source zones and pathways to water supply wells. Pathline density distributions, here created following a simple post‐processing step applied to the flow field, can provide probability information maps beyond classical deterministic PT approaches.…”

Section: Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 93%

Pathline Density Distributions in a Null‐Space Monte Carlo Approach to Assess Groundwater Pathways

Moeck¹,

Molson

Schirmer

2019

Groundwater

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A null‐space Monte‐Carlo (NSMC) approach was applied to account for uncertainty in the calibration of the hydraulic conductivity (K) field for a three‐dimensional groundwater flow model of a major water supply system in Switzerland. The approach generates different parameter realizations of the K field using the pilot point methodology. Subsequently, particle tracking (PT) was applied to each calibrated model, and the resulting particles are interpreted as the spatial pathline density distribution of multiple sources. The adopted approach offers advantages over classical PT which does not provide a means for treating uncertainty originating from the incomplete description of subsurface heterogeneity. Uncertainty in the K field is shown to strongly influence the spatial pathline distribution. Pathline spreading is particularly evident in locations where the information content of the head observations does not sufficiently constrain the estimated parameters. Despite the predictive uncertainty, the pumped drinking water at the study site is most likely dominated by artificially‐infiltrated groundwater originating from the local infiltration canals. The model suggests that within the well field, the central pumping wells could be extracting regional groundwater, although the probability is relatively low. Nevertheless, a rigorous uncertainty assessment is still required since only a few realizations resulted in flow paths that support the field observations. Model results should therefore not be based on only one model realization; rather, an uncertainty analysis should be carried out to provide a sufficiently large suite of equally probable simulations that include all potential sources and pathways.

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“…A better constrained submodel could then be utilized for scenario testing under a variety of future groundwater use scenarios, which could be idealized in nature or based on carefully planned well and land-use build-outs completed by planners and resource managers. These simulations should be applied to quantify expected changes in flow patterns and water balances in the aquifer systems under different scenarios, and, in particular, to evaluate if future pumping may cause water levels in wells to fall below operating levels or cause unacceptable groundwater reductions to streams and other groundwater-dependent ecosystems (see Meyer et al 2014 for an illustrative example). Continued monitoring would help verify and improve the submodel(s) simulations, which could then be used to improve the larger scale model for characterizing cumulative impacts to the system due to climate change, land use/cover change, etc.…”

Section: Subscale Data Collection Modeling and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Flow in a Complex Aquifer System Subjected to Long‐Term Well Network Growth

et al. 2019

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In west‐central Lower Peninsula of Michigan, population growth and expanded agricultural activities over recent decades have resulted in significant increases in distributed groundwater withdrawals. The growth of the extensive well network and anecdotes of water shortages (dry wells) have raised concerns over the region's groundwater sustainability. We developed an unsteady, three‐dimensional (3D) groundwater flow model to describe system dynamics over the last 50 years and evaluate long‐term impacts of groundwater use. Simulating this large aquifer system was challenging; the site is characterized by strong, spatially distributed, and statistically nonstationary heterogeneity, making it difficult to avoid over‐parameterization using traditional approaches for conceptualizing and calibrating a flow model. Moreover, traditional pumping and water level data were lacking and prohibitively expensive to collect given the large‐scale and long‐term nature of this study. An integrated, stochastic‐deterministic approach was developed to characterize the system and calibrate the flow model through innovative use of high‐density water well datasets. This approached allowed (1) implementation of a “zone‐based,” nonstationary stochastic approach to conceptualize complex spatial variability using a small set of geologic material types; (2) modeling the spatiotemporal evolution of many water well withdrawals across several decades using sector‐based parameterization; and (3) critical analysis of long‐term water level changes at different locations in the aquifer system for characterizing the system dynamics and calibrating the model. Results show the approach is reasonably successful in calibrating a complex model for a highly complex site in a way that honors complex distributed heterogeneity and stress configurations.

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A three-dimensional groundwater flow model of the Waterloo Moraine for water resource management

Cited by 17 publications

References 11 publications

Three-dimensional hydrostratigraphy of the Orangeville Moraine area, southwestern Ontario, Canada

Three-dimensional hydrostratigraphy of the Orangeville Moraine area, southwestern Ontario, Canada

Pathline Density Distributions in a Null‐Space Monte Carlo Approach to Assess Groundwater Pathways

Simulation of Flow in a Complex Aquifer System Subjected to Long‐Term Well Network Growth

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