A Time-Series Analysis of Terrorism: Intervention, Displacement, and Diffusion of Benefits

The heterogeneous repercussions of killing Osama bin Laden on global terrorism patterns

“…This finding contrasts with the widely held concern that a displacement of terrorism to other, similar, locations would occur when the opportunity structure is manipulated at one location (Buchanan et al, 2016;Cahill, 2017;Enders and Sandler, 2004). This finding is consistent with the growing experimental evidence supporting that there is a diffusion of benefits rather than direct displacement in the criminological literature (Hsu et al, 2018;Hsu and Apel, 2015), and suggests that focusing solely on the site of an intervention may miss important counterterrorism impacts beyond those who were directly exposed to the intervention. Ross and Gurr (1989) further argue that general deterrence is more important than the specific deterrent or incapacitation impacts for counterterrorism policy.…”

“…Although it could certainly be argued that the isolated finding that the killing of bin Laden was followed by a reduction in US terrorism is a sign of deterrent success, this perspective would diminish the importance the subsequent increases in other involved nations. Also in light of recent findings suggesting a diffusion of counterterrorism benefits (see Hsu and Apel, 2015;Hsu et al, 2018;Perry et al, 2016), we highlight the need to theoretically explore the relative benefits of using different geographic scopes to evaluate counterterrorism policies. Additional empirical work is also required to further unpack this downward shift in the US terrorism trajectory.…”

“…Despite the low likelihood of being able to statistically detect this influence (Lynch, 2011), the killing of bin Laden did achieve global recognition (see Figure 1) and had the potential to influence terrorism patterns beyond those committed by Al Qaeda at its affiliates. Beyond the claims of the US administration that the killing of bin Laden was the cornerstone for the global war on terror, recent studies have demonstrated that there was a general diffusion of deterrent benefits following a range of target hardening counterterrorism efforts (Hsu et al, 2018;Hsu and Apel, 2015;Perry et al, 2016). In light of this evidence, the full repercussions for counterterrorism likely extend beyond its specific targets, especially when the implementation is large in scale or receives widespread attention.…”

Situational Crime Prevention and Terrorism: An Assessment of 10 Years of Research

“…Subsequently, in the period beyond our study’s time frame, Hsu and colleagues (Hsu & McDowall, 2017; Hsu et al, 2018) published two additional studies. One study empirically investigated the assumption that once a prime-target country increases the price of attacks, terrorists will shift their attention to prime-targets overseas.…”

“…Importantly, the 2015 peak in SCP and terrorism studies ( n = 9) is less related to the publication of special issues and instead is constituted by an array of relevant scholarly studies published in both terrorism and criminal justice journals. In the period subsequent to our study’s time period, at least nine additional works (see for example, Hsu & McDowall, 2017; Hsu, Vasquez, & McDowall, 2018; Lasley & Guffey, 2017; Mandala, 2017; Mandala & Freilich, 2017, 2018; Romyn & Kebbell, 2018; St. George, 2017; Yang & Jen, 2017) were published using SCP to study terrorism.…”