A time-series analysis of the changing seasonality of precipitation in the British Isles and neighbouring areas

Thompson, Roy

doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(99)00129-8

Cited by 31 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…In timeseries terms, there is no indication of a unit root in the autocorrelation function of the monthly meteorological data, indicating no significant trend in the mean and variance of the data. This is consistent with the results of Thompson (1999), who found no trend in actual precipitation across Britain over last 150 yr, notwithstanding substantial variations from year to year. The picture is complicated by seasonal shifts in rainfall patterns.…”

Section: Simulated Weather Datasupporting

confidence: 92%

Climate change and the future occurrence of moorland wildfires in the Peak District of the UK

Albertson¹,

Aylen²,

Cavan

et al. 2010

Clim. Res.

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We investigated the impact of climate change on the number of wildfires in the Peak District uplands of northern England. Wildfires in peat can result in severe carbon loss and damage to water supplies, and fighting such fires is difficult and costly in such a remote location. The Peak District is expected to experience warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. Local weather simulations from a weather generator were used to predict the future incidence and timing of fires. Wildfire predictions were based on past fire occurrence and weather over 27.5 yr. A Probit model of wildfire incidence was applied to simulated weather data, which were generated by a Markov process and validated against actual baseline weather data using statistical criteria and success in replicating past fire patterns. The impact of climate change on the phenology and ecology of moorland and on visitor numbers was considered. Simulations suggest an overall increase in occurrence of summer wildfires. The likelihood of spring wildfires is not reduced by wetter winter conditions; however, the chance of wildfires rises as rainfall decreases. Temperature rise has a non-linear impact, with the risk of wildfire occurrence rising disproportionately with temperature. Recreation use is a major source of ignition. Little change in wildfire incidence is projected in the near future, but as climate change intensifies, the danger of summer wildfires is projected to increase from 2070; therefore, fire risk management will be necessary in future. In addition, moorlands may have to be managed to reduce the chance of summer wildfires becoming catastrophic, with consequent damage to ecosystem services such as water supplies and peat carbon storage. Management measures may include controlled burning, grazing or mowing to remove fuel.

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Section: Simulated Weather Datasupporting

confidence: 92%

Climate change and the future occurrence of moorland wildfires in the Peak District of the UK

Albertson¹,

Aylen²,

Cavan

et al. 2010

Clim. Res.

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“…Thus, as already stated in few earlier studies [e.g., Thompson, 1999;Slonosky, 2002;Thompson and Clark, 2008], all these time series can be considered homogeneous.…”

Section: Temperature and Rainfall Datamentioning

confidence: 80%

“…Seven time series were selected from various weather stations (Figure 1): Mansfield (1807Mansfield ( -1989, Podehole (1726Podehole ( -1994, Oxford (1767-2011), Kew Garden (1697-1999Lille (1784Lille ( -2003, Paris (1770-2004), and Rouen (1845-2008. We also had available two monthly homogenized indices of mean temperatures in Paris [Rousseau, 2009] and England (Central England Temperature, CET) [Manley, 1974].…”

Section: Temperature and Rainfall Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Links between multidecadal and interdecadal climatic oscillations in the North Atlantic and regional climate variability of northern France and England since the 17th century

et al. 2013

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[1] Knowledge of the variability of climate in the past is essential for understanding current climatic changes. Therefore, we investigated two temperature indices and seven rainfall time series of northwestern Europe since the 17th century. Trends and multidecadal to interdecadal variability are similar in England and northern France for temperature, whereas a strong regional contrast is evident between the two regions for rainfall. Multidecadal and interdecadal variability displays several periods of enhanced amplitude for both temperature and rainfall that may be related to large-scale climate control. On these scales, temperatures in both England and France display phase opposition with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) before 1800, while they are in-phase afterward, as determined by wavelet coherence. On the other hand, the relationships between temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are weak across multidecadal and interdecadal scales for the whole period under study. For rainfall, coherence with the AMO is observed for scales at around 30-60 years, whereas coherence with the NAO is detected on 50-80 year scales and interdecadal 16-23 year scales. However, relationships between rainfall variability and North Atlantic climate indices are highly contrasted depending on the region considered. Finally, the results of a mixed spectral/empirical orthogonal function analysis of mean sea level pressure on these co-oscillation time scales highlight not only NAO regimes but also other patterns, explaining a nonnegligible amount of variance during certain time periods.Citation: Dieppois, B., A. Durand, M. Fournier, and N. Massei (2013) Links between multidecadal and interdecadal climatic oscillations in the North Atlantic and regional climate variability of northern France and England since the 17th century,

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“…By using a harmonic representation of the annual cycle, this variability has been studied for long records of surface temperatures (Thomson, 1995;Stine et al, 2009) and precipitation (Thompson, 1999). The resulting annual phases and amplitudes describe the timing of the annual cycle and its range based on the whole cycle instead of considering each month separately.…”

Section: Seasonal Changes In Hydrologic Recordsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

Renner

Bernhofer

2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.Recently, climatological studies report observational evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier timing of the annual cycle of surface temperature, earlier snow melt and earlier onset of the phenological spring season. Also hydrological studies report earlier timing and changes in monthly streamflows. From a water resources management perspective, there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins.Here, the timing of hydrological regimes from 1930-2009 was investigated in a network of 27 river gauges in Saxony/Germany through a timing measure derived by harmonic function approximation of annual periods of runoff ratio series. The timing measure proofed to be robust and equally applicable to both mainly pluvial river basins and snow melt dominated regimes.We found that the timing of runoff ratio is highly variable, but markedly coherent across the basins analysed. Differences in average timing are largely explained by basin elevation. Also the magnitude of low frequent changes in the seasonal timing of streamflow and the sensitivity to the changes in the timing of temperature increase with basin elevation. This sensitivity is in turn related to snow storage and release, whereby snow cover dynamics in late winter explain a large part of the low-and high-frequency variability.A trend analysis based on cumulative anomalies revealed a common structural break around the year 1988. While the timing of temperature shifted earlier by 4 days, accompanied by a temperature increase of 1 K, the timing of runoff ratio Correspondence to: M. Renner (maik.renner@mailbox.tu-dresden.de) within higher basins shifted towards occurring earlier about 1 to 3 weeks. This accelerated and distinct change indicates, that impacts of climate change on the water cycle may be strongest in higher, snow melt dominated basins.

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A time-series analysis of the changing seasonality of precipitation in the British Isles and neighbouring areas

Cited by 31 publications

References 21 publications

Climate change and the future occurrence of moorland wildfires in the Peak District of the UK

Climate change and the future occurrence of moorland wildfires in the Peak District of the UK

Links between multidecadal and interdecadal climatic oscillations in the North Atlantic and regional climate variability of northern France and England since the 17th century

Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

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