Climate change and the future occurrence of moorland wildfires in the Peak District of the UK

Abstract

We investigated the impact of climate change on the number of wildfires in the Peak District uplands of northern England. Wildfires in peat can result in severe carbon loss and damage to water supplies, and fighting such fires is difficult and costly in such a remote location. The Peak District is expected to experience warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. Local weather simulations from a weather generator were used to predict the future incidence and timing of fires. Wildfire predictions were based on past fire occurrence and weather over 27.5 yr. A Probit model of wildfire incidence was applied to simulated weather data, which were generated by a Markov process and validated against actual baseline weather data using statistical criteria and success in replicating past fire patterns. The impact of climate change on the phenology and ecology of moorland and on visitor numbers was considered. Simulations suggest an overall increase in occurrence of summer wildfires. The likelihood of spring wildfires is not reduced by wetter winter conditions; however, the chance of wildfires rises as rainfall decreases. Temperature rise has a non-linear impact, with the risk of wildfire occurrence rising disproportionately with temperature. Recreation use is a major source of ignition. Little change in wildfire incidence is projected in the near future, but as climate change intensifies, the danger of summer wildfires is projected to increase from 2070; therefore, fire risk management will be necessary in future. In addition, moorlands may have to be managed to reduce the chance of summer wildfires becoming catastrophic, with consequent damage to ecosystem services such as water supplies and peat carbon storage. Management measures may include controlled burning, grazing or mowing to remove fuel.

Peat consumption and carbon loss due to smouldering wildfire in a temperate peatland

“…Though the fire we studied here only covered an area of 13.7 ha, it should be noted that peatland wildfires associated with smouldering combustion of peat deposits have been observed to cover much greater areas (e.g. Maltby et al, 1990;Albertson et al, 2010).…”

Projected climate change impacts on upland heaths in Ireland

“…For example, drier and warmer summers may increase the frequency, size and severity of uncontrolled fires (Albertson et al 2010), and drought effects may become more common later in the year (e.g. Cannell et al 2004).…”

“…There is also likely to be a modified seasonal incidence of extreme weather such as high-intensity precipitation events (Matthews et al 2016). A substantial impact for heathlands could be a modified fire seasonality, with more summer and autumn fires than is currently the case (Albertson et al 2010), and direct burning of the peat itself during fires, with negative consequences for the seed bank. These impacts could be exacerbated by subsequent increased winter rainfall.…”

Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

“…In terms of consequences for the natural environment from extreme events, additional risks were particularly highlighted by the potential increased damages from coastal flooding, drought and wildfire. For example, although human agency is currently the main risk factor for large-scale wildfires in the UK, a projected increased frequency of warmer drier summers implies a likely increased risk in sensitive areas (e.g., forest, heathland or grassland areas) based upon previous large-scale wildfire outbreaks during similar conditions (e.g., [74]). …”