A time-variant reliability analysis method for structural systems based on stochastic process discretization

Jiang, Chao; Huang, Xiaodong; Wei, Xinpeng; Liu, N. Y.

doi:10.1007/s10999-015-9324-z

Cited by 31 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Unfortunately, in many engineering applications, the experimental data are limited [14]. The reliability of a structural system may be estimated at two levels: the component level and the system level [15]. In this work, reliability is centered at the component level.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fitness for Service and Reliability of Materials for Manufacturing Components Intended for Demanding Service Conditions in the Petrochemical Industry

et al. 2020

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A methodology has been developed to quantitatively assess the suitability of use and fitness for service of candidate materials using a novel approach that includes multiple perspectives. As a case study, a carbon steel pipe has been selected for operation in the petrochemical sector. The materials studied were the following: American Petroleum Institute (API) A25, A, B, X42, X46, X52, X56, X60, X65 and X70, as well as American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) A-106 Gr. A, B and C. The developed model combines an analytical multiperspective approach with calculation methods based on recognized prestige standards. In the present study, the following material degradation mechanisms have been considered: generalized corrosion, fracture due to mechanical overload and high-temperature degradation. Several novel analysis elements have been incorporated into this new methodology, such as the concept of a suitability matrix and a fitness for service index. The approach allows construction of a decision diagram, and the best alternatives ordered according to the criteria and restrictions that have arisen from the analysis are obtained. Additionally, from the analysis, a series of service limitations are proposed based on the maximum hours of operation of a component. The materials ASTM A-106 Gr. A, API-A, ASTM A-106 Gr. B and API-B maintain the best balance between properties and show greater reliability versus the probability of failure due to the degradation mechanisms considered in this study. In addition, some use limitations such as critical exposure temperature have been determined for these materials (450 • C for ASTM A-106 Gr. A designation and 440 • C for API-B and ASTM A-106 Gr. B designations) to avoid the harmful effects of high-temperature operation on the material mechanical properties.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fitness for Service and Reliability of Materials for Manufacturing Components Intended for Demanding Service Conditions in the Petrochemical Industry

et al. 2020

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“…(A2) and v þÀ ij ðtÞ and v Àþ ij ðtÞ using Eq. (38); then obtain the joint upcrossing rate v þ i [ j ðtÞ.…”

Section: Numerical Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[36]. Jiang et al [37,38] studied the time-dependent reliability analysis of general engineering systems based on stochastic process discretization.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-Dependent System Reliability Analysis for Bivariate Responses

Zhu

2017

ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering

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Time-dependent system reliability is computed as the probability that the responses of a system do not exceed prescribed failure thresholds over a time duration of interest. In this work, an efficient time-dependent reliability analysis method is proposed for systems with bivariate responses which are general functions of random variables and stochastic processes. Analytical expressions are derived first for the single and joint upcrossing rates based on the first-order reliability method (FORM). Time-dependent system failure probability is then estimated with the computed single and joint upcrossing rates. The method can efficiently and accurately estimate different types of upcrossing rates for the systems with bivariate responses when FORM is applicable. In addition, the developed method is applicable to general problems with random variables, stationary, and nonstationary stochastic processes. As the general system reliability can be approximated with the results from reliability analyses for individual responses and bivariate responses, the proposed method can be extended to reliability analysis of general systems with more than two responses. Three examples, including a parallel system, a series system, and a hydrokinetic turbine blade application, are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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“…In recent years, a large amount of effort has been made to relax the limitations and to give more general solutions. Among these, the joint outcrossing rate method (eg, Hu and Du 5 ), the methods based on stochastic process discretization such as that proposed by Jiang et al, 6 and also the method based on total probability theorem and using the concept of composite limit sate (eg, Mourelatos et al 7 ) could be mentioned. In the literature, furthermore, there is an approach that is used, in principle, to reduce the current time-dependent reliability problem to an equivalent timeindependent one using either "a parallel system reliability" or "a series reliability system" formulation and to compute the outcrossing rate using the conventional methods such as FORM or second-order reliability method.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementation of directional simulation to estimate outcrossing rates in time‐variant reliability analysis of structures

Moarefzadeh

Sudret

2018

Quality & Reliability Eng

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Time‐dependent reliability analysis of structures by the use of an outcrossing approach normally requires the so‐called outcrossing rate to be estimated. A variety of methods has been recorded in the literature to evaluate this rate both for continues and discrete processes. Despite the availability of these methods, still more general and at the same time less sophisticated approaches are desired. In this paper, attempt is made to use the basic idea of “parallel system reliability formulation” to calculate the outcrossing rate for circumstances where the processes are continuous. These calculations are carried out by directional simulation. It is shown that this approach is simple to implement and may be used for the cases where the problem involves nonstationary processes and also for the cases where several limit state functions may have to be considered.

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A time-variant reliability analysis method for structural systems based on stochastic process discretization

Cited by 31 publications

References 37 publications

Fitness for Service and Reliability of Materials for Manufacturing Components Intended for Demanding Service Conditions in the Petrochemical Industry

Fitness for Service and Reliability of Materials for Manufacturing Components Intended for Demanding Service Conditions in the Petrochemical Industry

Time-Dependent System Reliability Analysis for Bivariate Responses

Implementation of directional simulation to estimate outcrossing rates in time‐variant reliability analysis of structures

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