2020
DOI: 10.5089/9781513559162.001
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A Vicious Cycle

Abstract: In this paper we analyze the dynamics among past major pandemics, economic growth, inequality, and social unrest. We provide evidence that past major pandemics, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to a significant increase in social unrest by reducing output and increasing inequality. We also find that higher social unrest, in turn, is associated with lower ourput and higher inequality, pointing to a vicious cycle. Our results suggest that without policy measures, the COVID-19 pandemic wi… Show more

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Cited by 13 publications
(3 citation statements)
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“…Past major pandemics, even though much smaller in scale, have led to a significant increase in social unrest by reducing output and increasing inequality. 120 Learning losses have not only disproportionately affected low-and middle-income countries but also vulnerable groups within each country. The children who need education the most to climb out of poverty will be the ones most likely to be deprived of it by the crisis.…”
Section: Learning Losses Will Reduce Lifetime Earnings For Hundreds O...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Past major pandemics, even though much smaller in scale, have led to a significant increase in social unrest by reducing output and increasing inequality. 120 Learning losses have not only disproportionately affected low-and middle-income countries but also vulnerable groups within each country. The children who need education the most to climb out of poverty will be the ones most likely to be deprived of it by the crisis.…”
Section: Learning Losses Will Reduce Lifetime Earnings For Hundreds O...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…While the research on the distributional impact of COVID -19 is extremely important, it is also very difficult to estimate reliably the effects of the ongoing phenomenon. For this reason, a growing literature attempts to measure the impact of pandemics on inequalities by looking at past pandemics such as the 14th century Black Death, the 1918 Spanish Flu or the 1968 H3N2 Flu (Alfani, 2020; Furceri et al, 2020; Galletta and Giommoni, 2020; Saadi-Sedik and Xu, 2020).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The present paper contributes to the empirical literature on the effect of major past global health crises on inequalities by estimating the short- to medium-term impacts of recent pandemics on income, wealth and gender inequalities. 1 While some previous studies have already studied the impact of past pandemics on income inequality (Alfani, 2020; Furceri et al, 2020; Galletta and Giommoni, 2020; Saadi-Sedik and Xu, 2020), they have relied on income inequality measures computed from either household surveys or tax sources that either underrepresent top-income earners or do not cover the whole population (e.g. exclude non -tax-payers).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%