A Web API for weather generation and pest development simulation in North America

Fortin, Mathieu; Lavoie, Jean-François; Régnière, Jacques; Saint-Amant, Rémi

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105476

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Hourly temperatures were estimated from daily maximum and minimum temperatures based on a sinewave function and degree‐days were then estimated based on numerical trapezoidal integration as described above. Simulated future daily normals were generated in BioSIM using the delta method and climate projections from the CMIP6 scenario and global climate models (GCM) ACCESS‐ESM1.5, CanESM5.0.3, MRI‐ESM2.0, GFDL‐ESM4, and UK‐ESM1‐0‐LL (Fortin et al, 2022). We used projections under the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 (Schwalm et al, 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Western pine beetle voltinism in a changing California climate

Bentz

Cluck

Bulaon

et al. 2023

Agri and Forest Entomology

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Recent hot droughts in California resulted in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) mortality attributed to drought and western pine beetle (WPB, Dendroctonus brevicomis). While drought alone can cause tree death, direct warming effects on WPB are a contributing factor. Research on WPB generation timing (voltinism), however, is lacking. We monitored WPB tree attacks and adult emergence timing at two California sites and developed a degree‐day model from field‐observed data. Historical, contemporary, and future temperatures for several California sites were used with the model to examine trends in WPB voltinism. Field data showed a single summer and an overwinter generation at a northern California site. As summer temperatures increased beyond 1900–1980 averages, the predicted number of full and partial WPB generations by 2021 had increased from ~2 annual (one summer and one overwinter) generations historically to ~2.3 at two northern California sites and from ~2.3 to ~3.2 at two warmer California sites. Historical and contemporary data suggest winter warming was not sufficient for an additional generation overwinter. Instead, increases in generations were driven by summer and fall temperatures. Unconstrained increases in the number of future annual generations will be limited by complex, but not well understood, WPB thermal adaptations. Increased knowledge of temperature‐driven WPB population growth will improve forest vegetation models aimed at predicting ponderosa pine mortality in a changing climate.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Western pine beetle voltinism in a changing California climate

Bentz

Cluck

Bulaon

et al. 2023

Agri and Forest Entomology

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“…For each study site, daily climate was extracted with the R implementation of BioSIM (Fortin et al, 2022), using the "Climatic_Daily" model and the six nearest weather stations (Supplementary Figure 2) for the 1950-2020 period. BioSIM is a software developed by Natural Resources Canada which computes daily climate variables based on daily records of Environment Canada historical weather observations.…”

Section: Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Strong latitudinal gradient in temperature-growth coupling near the treeline of the Canadian subarctic forest

Chagnon

Moreau

D’Orangeville

et al. 2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Boreal forests are experiencing severe climatic changes that vary widely across the broad geographic distribution of the biome. The changes are greatest near the subarctic treeline where trees often exhibit high climatic sensitivity because climatic conditions approach the limits of their physiological tolerance. Despite the importance of subarctic boreal forests, the lack of field-acquired growth data remains a critical issue that limits the generalization of forest productivity models across the entire boreal biome. Using tree-ring chronologies from remote stands distributed along three latitudinal gradients ranging from 65 to 102°W, we investigated recent trends in black spruce growth and their relationships with recent climate warming near the subarctic treeline in eastern Canada. Our results show a generally positive effect of temperature and a negative effect of precipitation, both indicating that black spruce growth is temperature-limited near its northern range limit. However, we observed a strong gradient in temperature-growth coupling within a small latitudinal gradient (about one degree of latitude), where strong temperature constraints appear limited to the northernmost, coldest stands. Moreover, the positive growth response to temperature decreased from wetter to dryer sites and climate-growth coupling declined over the study period in the driest sites. These results suggest that the growth increase associated with warmer temperature may be limited by reduced precipitation and potential moisture limitation. Lastly, our results suggest that acute climatic events have the potential to induce abrupt shifts in tree climate-growth relationships. Such results indicate that the expected beneficial effect of warming on high latitude tree growth may be less generalized and more complex than previously thought in northeastern Canada, perhaps due to factors other than temperature, which might confound the climate-growth coupling southwards. Thus, our results highlight the need for a better understanding of additional growth drivers in these poorly studied regions and for physiologically informed definitions of acute climatic events, in order to refine broad-scale forest productivity modeling.

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