Hydrogen and helium demix when sufficiently cool, and this bears on the evolution of all giant planets at large separations at or below roughly a Jupiter mass. We model the thermal evolution of Jupiter, including its evolving helium distribution following results of ab initio simulations for helium immiscibility in metallic hydrogen. After 4 Gyr of homogeneous evolution, differentiation establishes a thin helium gradient below 1 Mbar that dynamically stabilizes the fluid to convection. The region undergoes overstable double-diffusive convection (ODDC), whose weak heat transport maintains a superadiabatic temperature gradient. With a generic parameterization for the ODDC efficiency, the models can reconcile Jupiter's intrinsix flux, atmospheric helium content, and radius at the age of the solar system if the Lorenzen et al. H-He phase diagram is translated to lower temperatures. We cast the evolutionary models in an MCMC framework to explore tens of thousands of evolutionary sequences, retrieving probability distributions for the total heavy element mass, the superadiabaticity of the temperature gradient due to ODDC, and the phase diagram perturbation. The adopted SCvH-I equation of state favors inefficient ODDC such that a thermal boundary layer is formed, allowing the molecular envelope to cool rapidly while the deeper interior actually heats up over time. If the overall cooling time is modulated with an additional free parameter to imitate the effect of a colder or warmer EOS, the models favor those that are colder than SCvH-I. In this case the superadiabaticity is modest and a warming or cooling deep interior are equally likely. Subject headings: planets and satellites: physical evolution -planets and satellites: interiors -planets and satellites: individual (Jupiter) -methods: statistical 1. INTRODUCTION Cool giant planets are relics of the protoplanetary systems from which they formed in the sense that they do not fuse protons, and they are well-bound enough that even hydrogen does not escape appreciably over tens of billions of years. Their thermal evolution is thus relatively simple, and understanding it empowers us to use the present states of giant planets to learn about their history and formation. The open questions about planet formation thus motivate a comprehensive theory of giant planet evolution, which will continue to be driven heavily by our own, well-studied giant planets, Jupiter and Saturn.A Henyey-type stellar evolution calculation for a Jupitermass object was first performed by Graboske et al. (1975), who showed that a convective, homogeneous sphere of fluid hydrogen and helium could cool to Jupiter's observed luminosity over roughly the right timescale, and noted that among all model inputs, the equation of state (EOS) and superadiabaticity of the temperature gradient have the strongest influence on the overall cooling time.These two fundamental physical inputs are closely related. The EOS (paired with a hydrostatic model) is necessary to translate the planet's tangible properties...