Abe's Fall: Leadership and Expectations in Japanese Politics

Abstract

On becoming prime minister in 2006, Abe Shinzō was feted as the 'prince' of Japanese politics. A year later, Abe's Liberal Democratic Party had suffered a major electoral defeat and Abe's time as his country's leader was over. As a study of political leadership, this article seeks to explain the leadership outcomes of Abe's brief prime ministership, in particular the dramatic fall in public support Abe suffered during his tenure. It is argued that, despite the difficult circumstances Abe faced, the nature of his political demise cannot be fully accounted for by structural factors alone. It is also necessary to understand the role played by Abe himself and, in particular, his flawed leadership strategy. In the end, Abe's political demise followed a basic logic: high expectations followed by disillusionment characterised by sudden plunges in approval*a tragedy of hubris leading to nemesis.

How the mighty are fallen: Evaluating Abe Shinzō's leadership capital in crisis

“…Abe's inability to connect with the public became a focal point of the criticism. His attempt to empathise with the public during the period of the state of emergency also backfired, with his ‘at-home-with-Abe’ tweet subject to ridicule (see Katayama, 2020a; Kingston, 2020a). The compassion and empathy displayed by Jacinda Ardern (who famously ‘Zoomed’ a message to fellow New Zealanders from her home dressed casually in a sweatshirt) was a far cry from the image of Abe's privileged lifestyle as per his ‘stay home’ Tweet.…”

“…Burrett's (2017) later article focusing on Abe's return to power in 2012 used Elgie's (2015) transaction analysis to compare how and why Abe's leadership style changed between his first and second time in office. Other studies also considered leadership skills, vision and style as factors in Abe's fall and rise (Envall, 2011;George Mulgan, 2018).…”

The contemporary UK prime minister. When the personal becomes political: Agency, character, personality and celebrity

“…The conduct of any prime minister is shaped by a bundle of political or personal assets, though they are not always deployable or helpful (Hargrove and Owen, 2003; Helms, 2016). Given this, the abilities and capabilities inoffice are, in some senses, merely ‘narrow strategic options’ and ‘the prime minister should be conceived of as a strategic actor operating within a strategically selective context’ (Byrne and Theakston, 2019: 338).…”

“…Although the structural resources, operating context and personal style all interact with each other in office, this article is primarily concerned with the impact of individual agency on our understanding of the contemporary prime minister. In contrast to the Japanese prime minister, who has traditionally been viewed as a consensus builder and a weak leader constrained by institutional pressures, the UK prime minister has been able to impose a personal imprint on the role (Envall, 2008(Envall, , 2011George Mulgan, 2000;Uchiyama, 2010). This narrative shifted somewhat as scholarly and popular attention focused upon the differences between Abe 1.0 and Abe 2.0, particularly in terms of the 'strengthened executive position of the prime minister and Japan's more proactive role in the world' (Dobson and Rose, 2019: 127; see also Burrett, 2017;Shinoda, 2000).…”

Underplaying the ‘Okinawa card’: how Japan negotiates its alliance with the United States

“…By the mid 2000s, LDP revisionists such as Koizumi and Abe Shinzō were seeking to transform Japan's security politics (Samuels 2007). In trying to replace the Yoshida Doctrine (Envall 2008b), they reformed Japan's security-related institutions, outlined a more nationalist vision for the country and promoted significant legal reform, such as amending the constitution (Envall 2008a(Envall , 2011. Even their support for the USA was not based simply on inertia or ideology.…”