Abnormal Daily Temperature and Concern about Climate Change Across the United States

Abstract

The relatively low level of concern about climate change among Americans has important implications for climate policy. While many studies have examined individual characteristics associated with climate change attitudes, fewer studies have considered the effects of environmental conditions on such attitudes. Here, we use two national samples of American adults to explore the impact of abnormal daily temperatures on levels of concern about climate change. We test the hypotheses that (1) abnormally warm temperatures, and (2) both abnormally warm and abnormally cool temperatures are associated with higher levels of concern. Using a generalized ordinal logit, we find that the quadratic form of deviation from mean temperature on the date of the survey is significantly associated with higher levels of concern, thus supporting the second hypothesis. We discuss several theoretical frameworks that may explain this result including availability bias, mental models, and implicit stimuli, and the implications for climate policy.

How will climate change shape climate opinion?

“…Among studies that have tested temperature as an independent variable predicting climate opinion, some provide evidence for a 'local warming' effect (e.g. [5,6,10,11,15,18,62]), showing that elevated temperatures in the short term (daily to monthly) are associated with increased concern about climate change, belief that it is happening and human-caused, or policy support. For example, in one analysis, temperature anomalies in the week prior to a survey predict opinion about whether global warming is happening [9].…”

“…[25,76]), belief certainty [13,37], risk perceptions (e.g. [6]), self efficacy, mitigation or adaptation policy preferences (e.g. [23,62]), and intended behaviors.…”

“…As we show, despite extensive research efforts, the relationship between weather and climate opinions still remains unclear. Several recent studies point to an association between elevated temperatures [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19] or extreme weather events [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27] with greater climate change concern, belief that human-caused climate change is happening, or support for climate policies. Other studies, however, do not support such a relationship [28][29][30][31][32][33][34].…”

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism

“…Previous analyses calculate climate heuristics by comparing temperature during a given day (14,15), week (16), season (3,17,18), or year(s) (19,20) with a long-run average for the corresponding period and classifying this anomaly as either warmer or cooler than average. However, these daily, weekly, seasonal, or annual differences from the mean do not represent a change in climate, which is a change in the long-run weather means.…”

Scapegoats, silver bullets, and other pitfalls in the path to sustainability

“…Nationally, climate policy often depends on unrelated political trends, such as the back and forth created by public vacillation between democratic and republican candidates in the US. 6 At the local level, cities and communities learn through exposure to climate-related extreme events but may also act based on shared environmental norms, though both are subject to economic conditions and related budget constraints (Zahran et al 2006;Brooks et al 2014;Brody et al 2008).…”