Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications

McCollum, David; Yang, Christopher

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.08.038

Cited by 120 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Attempts to more systematically understand the complex network of choices and the outcomes from individual decisions (such as Santos et al trinity of policies) may shed light on any rebound effects that could negatively impact the potential telecommuting may have for GHG reduction. One example is McCollum and Yang's (2009) scenario analysis tool which estimates the variation in transportation outcomes for the variety of motorized transportation options can help determine impact of choices on future energy use. Coroama et.…”

Section: ) Factors Of Influence For Outcomes In Telecommutingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of telecommuting on personal vehicle usage and environmental sustainability

Zhu

Mason

2014

Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol.

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To understand whether telecommuting could be part of the policy solutions for greenhouse gas reduction in the transportation sector, this study uses Instrumental Variable Tobit models and data from 2001 and 2009 National Household Travel Surveys to explore whether telecommuting reduces or increases the daily work and non-work vehicle miles traveled. Our findings suggest telecommuters have more vehicle miles traveled for both daily work and non-work trips than non-telecommuters. Adding the findings that telecommuting has no impact on other non-working household member's daily total (nonwork) trips, we can possibly argue that households with telecommuter(s) tend to have higher daily total vehicle miles traveled. Our estimated marginal effect of telecommuting on worker's daily total trips indicates that, a telecommuter on average travels 38 vehicle miles more on a daily basis in 2001 and 45 vehicle miles more in 2009 compared with a non-telecommuter. These increases in vehicle miles traveled translate into a rather large increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. equivalent to adding 7,248,845 cars in 2001 and 8,808,165 in 2009 to the road. Moreover, the difference of this marginal effect between 2001 and 2009 suggests the impact of telecommuting on worker's daily total vehicle miles traveled had increased over time. With the emerging work arrangements to work from home, telecommuting has been welcomed in this changing environment, not only by individual workers and employers but also policymakers. But the outcomes seem to be opposite to what policy makers may have expected for GHG emission reductions.

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Section: ) Factors Of Influence For Outcomes In Telecommutingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of telecommuting on personal vehicle usage and environmental sustainability

Zhu

Mason

2014

Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol.

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“…Also, biological additives to conventional fuels (biofuels) were not discussed as a decarbonisation alternative. Nevertheless, they could replace conventional fuels by 2050 [25] thus lowering WTW emissions of fuels compared to the numbers used here. The share of regenerative components in fuels reduces the carbon intensity, but the production of these components requires that agricultural land be used for energy production, which would then have to compete with land use for food production [49].…”

Section: Electrification Of the Car Fleetmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The scenarios did not cover fuel cell vehicles, even though hydrogen can be considered as a relevant energy alternative for the car fleet [25,48]. Disadvantages of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV), however, include their higher manufacturing costs and the expensive process of generating hydrogen.…”

Section: Electrification Of the Car Fleetmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For this purpose, car emissions were decomposed into single emission factors. The decomposition of car emissions is a common approach to better understand the driving forces behind them [24][25][26]. Different emission factors and methods to quantify emission levels are used in the decomposition literature, depending on the scale The factor car fleet size (F) is the number of cars included in the EU-27 fleet in a certain year, car mobility (M) is the average distance driven by car (km per vehicle).…”

Section: Decomposition Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

2017

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This paper analyses decarbonisation scenarios for the European passenger car fleet in 2050. The scenarios have been developed using the backcasting approach and aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of passenger cars to a level defined in the Transport White paper that is 60% below 1990 levels. Considering the emission levels of 2010, a yearly reduction of 1.7% is required in order to achieve the target. Car emissions were decomposed into the main emission factors of mobility, efficiency and carbon intensity. How these factors change over time depends on various external factors: the pace of technological improvements, the future role of cars in society's mobility system and the priority given to decarbonising energy demand. The analysis showed that if car mobility and ownership continue to increase as expected in a 'business as usual' case, a share of 97% plug-in hybrid or battery electric vehicles might be required by 2050, together with a substantial decrease in greenhouse gas emission from electricity production. A transition to more advanced car technology such as automated driving, advanced batteries or lightweight materials in vehicle production would raise vehicle efficiency. Should car mobility continue at a high level, an early technology transition will be required.

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“…Many scenario studies of long-term climate stabilization use modeling frameworks with representation of the global energy economy (Fawcett et al 2015;IPCC 2007IPCC , 2014bRiahi et al 2007), while other scenario modeling research focuses more narrowly, on such cases as the U.S. economy (Paltsev et al 2009;Risky Business Project 2016) and energy sectors (McCollum & Yang 2009). Some research in geography and related fields separates sector, region, city, and time periods to address infrastructure changes, technology deployment, sectoral investment, and associated behavioral patterns of low-carbon transitions (Bataille et al 2016;C40 & Arup 2016;Mileva et al 2016;Solecki et al forthcoming).…”

Section: Decarbonizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social Science Perspectives on Drivers of and Responses to Global Climate Change

Jorgenson¹,

Fiske²,

Hubacek³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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This article provides a review of recent anthropological, archaeological, geographical, and sociological research on anthropogenic drivers of climate change, with a particular focus on drivers of carbon emissions, mitigation and adaptation. The four disciplines emphasize cultural, economic, geographic, historical, political, and social-structural factors to be important drivers of and responses to climate change. Each of these disciplines has unique perspectives and makes noteworthy contributions to our shared understanding of anthropogenic drivers, but they also complement one another and contribute to integrated, multidisciplinary frameworks. The article begins with discussions of research on temporal dimensions of human drivers of carbon emissions, highlighting interactions between long-term and near-term drivers. Next, descriptions of the disciplines' contributions to the understanding of mitigation and adaptation are provided. It concludes with a summary of key lessons offered by the four disciplines as well as suggestions for future research.

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Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications

Cited by 120 publications

References 33 publications

The impact of telecommuting on personal vehicle usage and environmental sustainability

The impact of telecommuting on personal vehicle usage and environmental sustainability

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

Social Science Perspectives on Drivers of and Responses to Global Climate Change

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