Achieving energy transformation: Metal intensity for the development of China's photovoltaic roadmap towards 2060

Abstract

The target to achieve carbon neutrality is to enforce explosive growth of the global solar photovoltaic (PV) industry. This may involve severe resource constraints to meet their future metal demands. Herein, we consider different scenarios for the latest Chinese solar PV roadmaps and mature photovoltaic sub-technologies that may dominate. We estimate metal intensities, supply material risks, end-of-life photovoltaic modules, energy intensity, and costs associated with deploying PV panels and analyze dynamic processes from 2000 to 2060. Results show that the strength of metals varies widely between scenarios and dominant sub-technologies, ranging from 30% to 1300%. Annual supply pressures suggest metal demand will be challenging, peaking in 2040-2045. According to priorities, domestic production of gallium, tellurium, indium, selenium, and silver is likely in short supply in 2020, while production of aluminum, copper, tin, and silicon is under moderate supply pressure, suggesting that China could be at risk of missing out on its future PV roadmaps. To mitigate future demand for metals and assess future energy security, efforts should be made to implement regulations, policies, and investments in circular economy strategies.