We evaluated the capacity to predict severe respiratory complications (SRCs) following upper abdominal surgery (UAS) by using the results of a respiratory questionnaire and preoperative pulmonary function tests.Lung volumes, flows and transfer factor of the lung for carbon monoxide (TL,CO,sb) were assessed in 361 consecutive adult patients (248 males and 113 females). SRCs were diagnosed 24 h after UAS by clinical examination and chest radiography. Univariate and stepwise multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of each single input variable, and to determine which indices best predicted outcome.These patients had a 1% mortality rate and 14% incidence of SRCs, with a male:female ratio of 0.86. The best predictors for SRCs by multiple analysis were: preoperative current hypersecretion of mucus (OR=133; p<0.0001); an increase in residual volume (RV) (OR=3.11; p=0.01); and, to a lesser extent, low percentage of predicted values both of forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1 % pred) and TL,CO,sb. The algorithm thus obtained (logit θ) was extremely sensitive (84%), specific (99%), and accurate (95%) for preoperative prediction of SRCs.We have found that preoperative current hypersecretion of mucus and pulmonary hyperinflation, and to a lesser extent percentage predicted values both of forced expiratory volume in one second and transfer factor of the lung for carbon monoxide, have a significant predictive capacity for severe respiratory complications following upper abdominal surgery. Eur Respir J 1997; 10: 1301-1308 Since 1910, it has been well-known that patients undergoing upper abdominal surgery (UAS) generally develop a severe pulmonary restrictive pattern [1], and carry a high risk of postoperative respiratory complications [2][3][4]. The most important factors determining the degree of postoperative impairment of ventilation and gas exchange are the site of operation, the age, and clinical status of the patient [5]. Forced vital capacity (FVC) and peak flows are often reduced to half, and the functional residual capacity (FRC) to below 70% of the preoperative values [5]. These effects may not be restored even by the fifth postoperative day [5]. The reduced FVC and the reduction of FRC are mainly a consequence of an impaired diaphragmatic function [6]. Furthermore, the risk for postoperative respiratory complications decreases with the distance of the surgical incision from the diaphragm [7,8].Several studies have tried to determine the incidence of postoperative respiratory complications of UAS, and the estimates vary widely. The majority of investigations have focused on subclinical complications, i.e. radiographic evidence of atelectasis, with or without pleural fluid. With this broader definition of complication, the incidence of postoperative complications of UAS is approximately 25-75% [9,10].In this paper, we examine the relationship between preoperative respiratory symptoms and physiology, and postoperative r...