Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050

Abstract

International audienceThis study estimates the human cost of failures in the CCS industry in 2050, using the actuarial approach. The range of expected fatalities is assessed integrating all steps of the CCS chain: additional coal production, coal transportation, carbon capture, transport, injection and storage, based on empirical evidence from technical or social analogues. The main finding is that a few hundred fatalities per year should be expected if the technology is used to avoid emitting 1 GtC yr-1 in 2050 at baseload coal power plants. The large majority of fatalities are attributable to mining and delivering more coal. These risks compare to today's industrial hazards: technical, knowable and occupational dangers for which there are socially acceptable non-zero risk levels. Some contemporary European societies tolerate about one fatality per thousand year around industrial installations. If storage sites perform like that, then expected fatalities per year due to leakage should have a minor contribution in the total expected fatalities per year: less than one. But to statistically validate such a safety level, reliability theory and the technology roadmap suggest that CO2 storage demonstration projects over the next 20 years have to cause exactly zero fatality.Dans cette étude on estime les coûts humains des défaillances dans la filière du CSC en 2050, en utilisant l'approche actuarielle. La mortalité prévue est évaluée à tous les stades du CSC : production additionnelle de charbon, captage du carbone, transport, injection et stockage, en se basant sur des données empiriques issues d'analogues techniques et sociaux. La conclusion principale est que quelques centaines de décès par an sont à attendre quand la technologie est employée pour éviter l'émission d'1 GtC an-1 en 2050 pour 1500 centrales électriques de base alimentées en charbon. La mise en oeuvre du CSC épargnerait sans doute plusieurs dizaines de milliers de vies en 2050 par l'atténuation du changement climatique. Ainsi, en termes de vies sauvées attendues, les bénéfices du CSC l'emportent sur ses coûts. La grande majorité des décès sont attribuables à l'extraction de davantage de charbon, et viennent ensuite les pertes dans l'acheminement maritime. Ces risques sont comparables aux accidents industriels d'aujourd'hui : des dangers techniques, connaissables et professionnels pour lesquels existent des niveaux de risque non zéro socialement acceptés. Si les sites de stockage opèrent à des niveaux de sûreté actuellement tolérés dans des installations analogues, les pertes annuelles attendues liées aux fuites, pourtant une préoccupation importante pour le public local, devraient contribuer de façon mineure à la mortalité annuelle attendue : inférieures à un. Mais cette condition de performance des sites de stockage sera refutée si une seule mort se produit avant 2030

A Comprehensive Infrastructure Assessment Model for Carbon Capture and Storage Responding to Climate Change under Uncertainty

“…We collected data about the uncertainty associated with the design and operation of the CCS infrastructure from several sources in the literature which performed TEA, 5 EA, [6][7][8]23 and TRA of CCS systems. 10 The uncertain parameters can be expressed as probability density functions (PDFs) and discrete interval values; therefore, they are described by 50 scenarios using Monte Carlo sampling, considering a normal distribution with a specified mean and variance (see Table 3). Supporting information for the paper includes additional tables regarding parametric analyses and data estimates (see Appendix I, Tables A.2−A.5).…”

“… a The average value of each uncertain parameter is offered in Appendix I. b The variance of each uncertain CO 2 emission, product price, and operating cost was based on the TEA from ref . c The variance of each uncertain environmental emission inventory value was based on the EA of refs − and ref . d The variance of each uncertain technical accident inventory was based on the TRA of ref . …”

“…9 Also, CCS infrastructures can entail risks of accidental CO 2 leaks. 10 Several studies have developed their own technical risk assessment (TRA) approaches, but no clear guidelines exist regarding how to estimate the safety level required of CCS infrastructure. Moreover, few studies have solved simultaneously analyzed the economic, environmental and safety concerns which must be met if the CCS infrastructure is to be sustainable.…”

“…Although the CCS infrastructure drastically reduces CO 2 emissions, it causes other types of environmental pollution (e.g., nitrogen oxides and sulfur oxides). − Thus, the environment assessment (EA) of CCS infrastructure has been addressed in this study . Also, CCS infrastructures can entail risks of accidental CO 2 leaks . Several studies have developed their own technical risk assessment (TRA) approaches, but no clear guidelines exist regarding how to estimate the safety level required of CCS infrastructure.…”

Worker safety in a mature carbon capture and storage industry in the United States based upon analog industry experience

“…While experience alone is not yet sufficient to determine the safety of pipelines from these plants to storage fields relative to ubiquitous natural gas and hazardous liquids pipelines (Ha-Duong and Loisel, 2011), modeling indicates the hazard area from a CO 2 pipeline rupture will be quite limited (Mazzoldi et al, 2011) in contrast to the potential for chemical combustion from natural gas pipeline ruptures and the hazard area from hazardous liquid pipeline ruptures.…”