Adaptability and adaptations of California’s water supply system to dry climate warming

Abstract

Journal article"The ability of California's water supply system to adapt to long-term climatic and demographic changes is examined. Two climate warming and a historical climate scenario are examined with population and land use estimates for the year 2100 using a statewide economic-engineering optimization model of water supply management. Methodologically, the results of this analysis indicate that for long-term climate change studies of complex systems, there is considerable value in including other major changes expected during a long-term time-frame (such as population changes), allowing the system to adapt to changes in conditions (a common feature of human societies), and representing the system in sufficient hydrologic and operational detail and breadth to allow significant adaptation. While the policy results of this study are preliminary, they point to a considerable engineering and economic ability of complex, diverse, and inter-tied systems to adapt to significant changes in climate and population. More specifically, California's water supply system appears physically capable of adapting to significant changes in climate and population, albeit at a significant cost. Such adaptation would entail large changes in the operation of California's large groundwater storage capacity, significant transfers of water among water users, and some adoption of new technologies." -- Authors' AbstractIFPRI3; ISI; GRP38; Theme 3; Subtheme 3.1; Theme 1; Environment and Natural Resource Management; Managing natural resources; Global food scenariosEPTDP

A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK

“…In the UK there has already been a shift away from climate change impact assessment to identifying practical adaptation measures (Wilby et al, 2006). Such measures will need to take into account environmental, technological, economic, institutional and cultural characteristics (Tanaka et al, 2006;PahlWostl, 2007;Medellín-Azuara et al, 2008).…”

Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

“…Some academic studies have attempted to explore alternative methods for water resources planning using optimization rather than simulation (Labadie, 2004;Lund and Ferreira, 1996;Lee et al, 2009Lee et al, , 2010Medellin-Azuara et al, 2008), but such techniques are rarely applied in formal long-term (meaning more than a year ahead) planning studies conducted by water resources management agencies. The reasons for the choice of simulation as the dominant planning approach are complex, but are partly related to the fact that optimization results are frequently difficult to interpret in the context of highly constrained systems governed by a large number of regulatory requirements.…”

A New Way for Incorporating GCM Information into Water Shortage Projections

“…Most studies utilized multiple general circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios, and the average number of GCM scenarios used in these water balance projection studies ranges from four to five. For instance, some studies relied on only a single GCM scenario [2][3][4], whereas Islam et al [5] applied the most number of GCM scenarios, which is 12 in total. In terms of water shortage calculation, water balance analysis models have been commonly used with GCM-driven streamflow scenarios.…”

“…They also used multiple GCM scenarios to overcome the heterogeneity that arises from GCMs. Moreover, various water balance analysis models have been utilized, which include CalSim II [6], WEAP [7,8], CALVIN [3], WRAP [9], Mospa [10], Sibuc [11], IQQM [12], Riverware [13], and WSM [14]. In Korea, the K-WEAP and the K-MODSIM models have been popularly employed for water balance analysis, and there have been several efforts to incorporate GCM scenarios into water balance analysis to reflect future climate change impact [15][16][17].…”