Journal article"The ability of California's water supply system to adapt to long-term climatic and demographic changes is examined. Two climate warming and a historical climate scenario are examined with population and land use estimates for the year 2100 using a statewide economic-engineering optimization model of water supply management. Methodologically, the results of this analysis indicate that for long-term climate change studies of complex systems, there is considerable value in including other major changes expected during a long-term time-frame (such as population changes), allowing the system to adapt to changes in conditions (a common feature of human societies), and representing the system in sufficient hydrologic and operational detail and breadth to allow significant adaptation. While the policy results of this study are preliminary, they point to a considerable engineering and economic ability of complex, diverse, and inter-tied systems to adapt to significant changes in climate and population. More specifically, California's water supply system appears physically capable of adapting to significant changes in climate and population, albeit at a significant cost. Such adaptation would entail large changes in the operation of California's large groundwater storage capacity, significant transfers of water among water users, and some adoption of new technologies." -- Authors' AbstractIFPRI3; ISI; GRP38; Theme 3; Subtheme 3.1; Theme 1; Environment and Natural Resource Management; Managing natural resources; Global food scenariosEPTDP

No abstract

[1] If abrupt climate change has occurred in the past and may be more likely under human forcing, it is relevant to look at the adaptability of current infrastructure systems to severe conditions of the recent past. Geologic evidence suggests two extreme droughts in California during the last few thousand years, each 120-200 years long, with mean annual streamflows 40%-60% of the historical mean. This study synthesized a 72 year drought with half of mean historical inflows using random sampling of historical dry years. One synthetic hydrological record is used, and sensitivity to different interpretations of the paleorecord is not evaluated. Economic effects and potential adaptation of California's water supply system in 2020 to this drought is explored using a hydroeconomic optimization model. The model considers how California could respond to such an extreme drought using water trading and provides best-case estimates of economic costs and effects on water operations and demands. Results illustrate the ability of extensive, intertied, and flexible water systems with heterogeneous water demands to respond to severe stress. The study follows a different approach to climate change impact studies, focusing on past climate changes from the paleorecord rather than downscaled general circulation model results to provide plausible hydrologic scenarios. Adaptations suggested for the sustained drought are similar for dry forms of climate warming in California and are expensive but not catastrophic for the overall economy but would impose severe burdens on the agricultural sector and environmental water uses.

Hydrologic alteration due to hydropeaking reservoir operations is a main concern worldwide. Subdaily environmental flow constraints (ECs) on operations can be promising alternatives for mitigating negative impacts. However, those constraints reduce the flexibility of hydropower plants, potentially with higher costs for the power system. To study the economic and environmental efficiency of ECs, this work proposes a novel framework comprising four steps: (i) assessment of the current subdaily hydrologic alteration; (ii) formulation and implementation of a short-term, grid-wide hydrothermal coordination model; (iii) design of ECs in the form of maximum ramping rates (MRRs) and minimum flows (MIFs) for selected hydropower reservoirs; and (iv) identification of Pareto-efficient solutions in terms of grid-wide costs and the Richard-Baker flashiness index for subdaily hydrologic alteration (SDHA). The framework was applied to Chile's main power grid, assessing 25 EC cases, involving five MIFs and five MRRs. Each case was run for a dry, normal, and wet water year type. Three Pareto-efficient ECs are found, with remarkably small cost increase below 2% and a SDHA improvement between 28% and 90%. While the case involving the highest MIF worsens the flashiness of another basin, the other two have no negative effect on other basins and can be recommended for implementation.

No abstract