Adaptability of Mediterranean Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: The Example of the Sierra Mágina Olive-Growing Region (Andalusia, Spain). Part II: The Future

Abstract

International audienceThe adaptability of olive-growing systems to climate change is studied in the Sierra Mágina region (Andalusia) using an interdisciplinary approach that evaluates and makes associations across climate, water resources, and socioeconomic strategies. First, the evolution of rainfall and temperature during the twenty-first century is assessed at the local scale using 17 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. A 15%–30% rainfall reduction is expected in the fall combined with a 7%–9% annual reduction by 2030–50. Based on a regression model relating yields to rainfall, residual yields (independent of the increasing trend in the present period and from the biennial fruit bearing of the olive tree) are projected to decrease by 7% and 3.5% by 2030–50 for rainfed and irrigated olive groves, respectively. Substantial uncertainties in these results are discussed. A GIS analysis shows a reduction of ground and surface water resources, which are the basis of the present adaptation to rainfall variability, and an uneven potential for adaptation to climate change in the Sierra Mágina region. Despite the important challenges faced by this rural region, there is no consensus among the local key actors regarding adaptation strategies. This is due in part to the diversity among farmers, but also to the different levels of awareness about climate change among all the stakeholders and farmers. Since the projected decline in medium-range future yields is not very high, there might be time and possibilities, especially in the northern part of the Sierra Mágina, to build a local adaptability strategy within the next 20 years that would take into account improved methods of water management and a better economic valorization of olive oil. But at longer time scales, the adaptability of the olive-growing system to yield and water resource declines seems to be threatened

Pruning waste management and climate change in Sierra Mágina’s olive groves (Andalusia, Spain)

“…The processes described by the interviewees and observed in the field contradict some of the previous research regarding technology adoption dynamics (Geels and Schot 2007;Rogers 2003). We found that innovations are sometimes incorporated at the local level to solve local problems, but without altering the entire technological regime, as is the case of chipping, were the innovation is partially adopted to solve stubble burning practical issues (mainly permits).…”

“…Some authors have focused on the role that social and political contexts play in shaping these practices (Ploeg 2009;Poppe et al 2009). Some others (Rogers 2003;Geels and Schot 2007) have rather focused on the role of technological adoption dynamics. Furthermore, some authors suggest that these changes may respond to environmental challenges, including climate change (Smit and Skinner 2002).…”

Climate change projections for the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System in the Iberian Peninsula until 2070

“…Overall, results show that the climate change footprint might be particularly challenging for agroforestry systems in IP, already under heat and water stress (Acácio et al ., 2009; Tanasijevic et al ., 2014). Relevant socio‐economic sectors linked to, for example, wine vineyards (Fraga et al ., 2017), chestnut production (Pereira et al ., 2011), and olive oil production (olive trees) may also be severely affected (Ponti et al ., 2014; Ronchail et al ., 2014). In fact, the land cover data for 2012 reveals major areas of olive groves in Andalucía, fruit tree, and berry plantations in Murcia and Valencia regions located in the southeast portion of the IP and in Algarve and Alentejo located in southern region of Portugal (Figure 14a).…”

The Influence of Climate on Agricultural Decisions for Three European Crops: A Systematic Review

“…Settling olive orchards on hill slopes (Tombesi et al, 2007) Variable levels of incidence of pests and diseases (Ponti et al, 2014) Pathogen treatments; Protection of pests' natural enemies; Choice of pest resistant olive Cultivars (Tombesi et al, 2007;Proietti and Regni, 2018) Decrease in annual rainfall Alteration of cultivation areas (Ronchail et al, 2014) Shift in crops (Ronchail et al, 2014) Decrease in summer rainfall Decrease in yield (Musolino et al, 2018;Kahiluoto et al, 2019;Roselló et al, 2019) Increased genetic diversity (Kahiluoto et al, 2019;Roselló et al, 2019) Crop insurance (Gonzalez-Zeas et al, 2014) 2 cropping systems, because the production of durum wheat in Europe is mainly concentrated in a few Mediterranean countries (Italy, Spain, France, Macedonia, Greece, Portugal, Cyprus, and Malta), all of which have similar climatic conditions (Ventrella et al, 2012;Ranieri, 2015;Moriondo et al, 2016). In these areas, the yield response indicates declining resilience to increasing temperatures, potentially due to continuously homogenizing and declining cultivars or genetic pool (Kahiluoto et al, 2019;Roselló et al, 2019).…”