Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany

Abstract

Planning for adaptation to climate change is often regarded to be a local imperative and considered to be more effective if grounded on a solid evidence base and recognisant of relevant climate projections. Research has already documented some of the challenges of making climate information usable in decision-making but has not yet sufficiently reflected on the role of the wider institutional and regulatory context. This article examines the impact of the external institutional context on the use and usability of climate projections in local government through an analysis of 44 planning and climate change (adaptation) documents and 54 semi-structured interviews with planners in England and Germany conducted between July 2013 and May 2014. We show that there is little demand for climate projections in local adaptation planning in either country due to existing policy, legal and regulatory frameworks. Local government in England has not only experienced a decline in use of climate projections, but also the waning of the climate change adaptation agenda more widely, amidst changes in the planning and regulatory framework and severe budget cuts. In Germany, spatial planning makes substantial use of past and present climate data, but the strictly regulated nature of planning prevents the use of climate projections, due to their inherent uncertainties. Findings from the two countries highlight that if we are to better understand the usability of climate projections, we need to be more aware of the institutional context within which planning decisions are made. Otherwise we run the risk of continuing to provide tools and information that are of limited use within their intended context.

Tailoring Climate Parameters to Information Needs for Local Adaptation to Climate Change

“…The latter is consistent with other studies in Germany that found adaptation plans in one third of the cities [6], and showed that one third of the regional planning authorities considered climate adaptation in their regional plans [23]. In combination with the survey result that climate change adaptation is considered a "relatively new topic" in many municipalities in Baden-Wuerttemberg, our study contributes further evidence to Lorenz et al's conclusion that, "Despite progress on adaptation at [the] national level [in Germany], adaptation at the local level still seems to be in the early stages" ( [58], p. 7). This confirms the "gap between the perceived urgency of proactive adaptation to climate change by scientists and the perceptions of planners" observed in Dutch urban areas ( [12], p. 777).…”

“…The fact that municipalities use analyses of the current climate and documents such as climate function maps or planning recommendation maps more often than climate projections also has been described in previous studies [23,58]. However, municipalities use (online) information sources frequently to obtain information about future climate change, its effects, and concrete measures for adaptation.…”

“…They also should focus on one or a few fields of action in the context of adaptation rather than taking such a broad approach, as this could yield more in-depth results. In addition, the legal and regulatory planning system, in which climate science and local stakeholders interact, should be considered [58] when identifying suitable formats for iterative, dialogue-based approaches.…”

Why popular support tools on climate change adaptation have difficulties in reaching local policy‐makers: Qualitative insights from the UK and Germany

“…As shown in Section 4, communities were interested in adaptation support (not necessarily the Wizard) as long as National Indicator 188 required them to report on local adaptation, and once this requirement ceased to exist their interest in adaptation faded. This implies that adaptation policy support tools do not have the power to promote comprehensive adaptation processes (at least not in small communities), unless they are accompanied by adequate national (or regional) policies (for a similar conclusion on the use of climate projections in local adaptation planning in England and Germany, see Lorenz, Dessai, Forster, & Paavola, ). If support tools are too remote from target group needs (also because accompanying policies shaping these needs are not in place), they perpetuate the notorious dilemma of decision support, namely that policy‐makers find respective tools irrelevant for their work while scientists complain that their outputs remain unused (Reinecke et al, , p. 3, who reference Cash et al, ).…”

De transformatie van kennis voor klimaatadaptatie

“…Dat zou een meer omvattend beeld opleveren van toekomstige klimaatrisico's. Engeland was daar een voorbeeld van, hoewel lokale klimaatkennisproductie daar wel is komen stil te staan sinds het ambitieuze reguleringskader uit de Climate Change Act deels is ontmanteld (Lorenz, Dessai, Forster, & Paavola, 2017). Er zou een expertorganisatie kunnen worden opgezet om die beoordeling kritisch te beoordelen.…”