Adaptation Turning Points in River Restoration? The Rhine Salmon Case

Bölscher, Tobias; Slobbe, Erik van; Vliet, Michelle T. H. van; Werners, S.E.

doi:10.3390/su5062288

Cited by 23 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Figure 4 combines a qualitative expert opinion on sea wall failure and mudflat loss with values of four regional climate scenario higher than 23°C, in which case the time window for salmon to migrate from the sea into the Rhine may become too small. Bölscher et al (2013) conclude that a water temperature of 23°C is a meaningful threshold value for the success of the reintroduction program. However, the dependency of the migration on the duration and timing of such a period of high water temperature is largely unknown.…”

Section: Interpretation and Integration Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Literature reports diverse thermal boundary conditions for Atlantic salmon (for an overview, see Table 2 in Bölscher et al 2013). Two boundary conditions have been identified from literature and expert interviews as being particularly threatening to the reintroduction of the salmon: (1) short but regularly occurring periods with potentially lethal temperatures between 25°C and 33°C and (2) long periods with mean water temperatures …”

Section: Climatic Conditions For Reaching Thresholdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Turning points in climate change adapatation

Werners¹,

Slobbe²,

Bölscher³

et al. 2015

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an "adaptation turning point." The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation.

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Section: Interpretation and Integration Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climatic Conditions For Reaching Thresholdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Turning points in climate change adapatation

Werners¹,

Slobbe²,

Bölscher³

et al. 2015

E&S

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…At low river discharges, the salt intrusion through the Rotterdam waterway reaches further inland, causing salinisation of important surface water intakes for drinking water supply and irrigation, thus requiring intakes to be closed. Moreover, reduced water depths in the rivers hamper navigation, and increasing water temperature (Bölscher et al 2013) poses problems to both the energy production sector, with availability of cooling water for power plants, and drinking water intake (Penailillo Burgos et al 2010). In view of the changing climate the frequency of these problems is expected to increase (Bresser et al 2006;De Wit et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Delta Model for Fresh Water Policy Analysis in the Netherlands

Prinsen

Weiland

Ruijgh

2014

Water Resour Manage

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During dry years, such as 2003 and the early summer of 2011, the Netherlands faces water shortages, salt intrusion, navigation limitations and problems with availability of cooling water for power plants. Considering the changing climate, the frequency of these problems is expected to increase. A policy analysis using an integrated set of models has been launched by the government: the Dutch Delta Programme. The Delta model is the consistent set of models for analysing the decisions related to the long-term fresh water supply and flood risk management of the Netherlands. The country-wide SOBEK-1D hydrodynamic surface water model (LSM) was developed as part of the Delta model and forms the link between the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI) and impact assessment models for salinity, temperature, water quality, aquatic ecology and navigation. The Delta model provides a computational facility that automates the workflow of running sets of interconnected models for the national policy analysis on fresh water and various regional programmes within the Delta Programme. The Delta model, although being computationally demanding, enabled analyses of the present situation, future scenarios (2050 and 2100) and possible adaptation measures. Moreover, the Delta model has supported consistency between the national analyses and regional analyses in the Delta Programme.

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“…This method has previously been applied to river restoration and a species re-introduction programme [24][25][26]; unfortunately, the approach fails to address whether or not current management strategies are sustainable when system behaviour is poorly understood, and when there are time lags that are involved for different subsystems in a larger SES [11]. However, the ATP approach confronts the lack of quantitative and qualitative ecological data sets to infer acceptability of management [10,27,28] by using stakeholder engagement to determine unknown/ill-defined thresholds, and thereby prevents a focus on only existing management strategies [26,27]. To prevent confusion with definitions of tipping points in other fields (e.g., climate sciences, ecology), we will use the term "adaptation tipping point" in this study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation Tipping Points of a Wetland under a Drying Climate

Nanda

Beesley

Locatelli

et al. 2018

Water

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Wetlands experience considerable alteration to their hydrology, which typically contributes to a decline in their overall ecological integrity. Wetland management strategies aim to repair wetland hydrology and attenuate wetland loss that is associated with climate change. However, decision makers often lack the data needed to support complex social environmental systems models, making it difficult to assess the effectiveness of current or past practices. Adaptation Tipping Points (ATPs) is a policy-oriented method that can be useful in these situations. Here, a modified ATP framework is presented to assess the suitability of ecosystem management when rigorous ecological data are lacking. We define the effectiveness of the wetland management strategy by its ability to maintain sustainable minimum water levels that are required to support ecological processes. These minimum water requirements are defined in water management and environmental policy of the wetland. Here, we trial the method on Forrestdale Lake, a wetland in a region experiencing a markedly drying climate. ATPs were defined by linking key ecological objectives identified by policy documents to threshold values for water depth. We then used long-term hydrologic data to assess if and when thresholds were breached. We found that from the mid-1990s, declining wetland water depth breached ATPs for the majority of the wetland objectives. We conclude that the wetland management strategy has been ineffective from the mid-1990s, when the region's climate dried markedly. The extent of legislation, policies, and management authorities across different scales and levels of governance need to be understood to adapt ecosystem management strategies. Empirical verification of the ATP assessment is required to validate the suitability of the method. However, in general we consider ATPs to be a useful desktop method to assess the suitability of management when rigorous ecological data are lacking.

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Adaptation Turning Points in River Restoration? The Rhine Salmon Case

Cited by 23 publications

References 35 publications

Turning points in climate change adapatation

Turning points in climate change adapatation

The Delta Model for Fresh Water Policy Analysis in the Netherlands

Adaptation Tipping Points of a Wetland under a Drying Climate

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