Adapting California’s water system to warm vs. dry climates

Connell-Buck, Christina R.; Medellín–Azuara, Josué; Lund, Jay R.; Madani, Kaveh

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0302-7

Cited by 70 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…A thorough economic analysis would depend on the type of integrated water management strategies adopted to deal with projected lower recharge (and higher runoff) rates in the future. Future modeling could be conducted to estimate potential costs of water management infrastructure adaptations based on changes in watershed water supply (Connell-Buck et al 2011;Medellín-Azuara et al 2011).…”

Section: Water Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

Byrd

Flint

Alvarez³

et al. 2015

Landscape Ecol

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Context In addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture. Objectives To understand the potential impacts to rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) climate/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley of California and surrounding foothills consistent with three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario narratives.Methods We quantified baseline and projected change in wildlife habitat, soil organic carbon (SOC), and water supply (recharge and runoff). For six case study watersheds we quantified the interactions of future development and changing climate on recharge, runoff and streamflow, and precipitation thresholds where dominant watershed hydrological processes shift through analysis of covariance. Results The scenarios show that across the region, habitat loss is expected to occur predominantly in grasslands, primarily due to future development (up to a 37 % decline by 2100), however habitat loss in priority conservation errors will likely be due to cropland and hay/pasture expansion (up to 40 % by 2100). Grasslands in the region contain approximately 100 teragrams SOC in the top 20 cm, and up to 39 % of this SOC is subject to conversion by 2100. In dryer periods recharge processes typically dominate runoff. Future development lowers the precipitation value at 123Landscape Ecol (2015) 30:729-750 DOI 10.1007 which recharge processes dominate runoff, and combined with periods of drought, reduces the opportunity for recharge, especially on deep soils. Conclusion Results support the need for climatesmart land use planning that takes recharge areas into account, which will provide opportunities for water storage in dry years. Given projections for agriculture, more modeling is needed on feedbacks between agricultural expansion on rangelands and water supply.

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Section: Water Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

Byrd

Flint

Alvarez³

et al. 2015

Landscape Ecol

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“…Climate change adaptation has received growing attention as an important response strategy and management option to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience in different sectors, including water resources (Connell-Buck et al 2011;Charlton and Arnell 2011;Sowers et al 2011;Hanak and Lund 2012;Iglesias et al 2013), agriculture (Reidsma et al 2010;Olesen et al 2011;Klein et al 2013), energy (Madani and Lund 2010;Guegan et al 2012;Jamali et al 2013;Madani et al 2014) and environment (Palmer et al 2009;Cross et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

Gohari

Mirchi

Madani

2017

Water Resour Manage

Self Cite

112

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The Zayandeh-Rud River basin, Iran, is projected to face spatiotemporally heterogeneous temperature increase and precipitation reduction that will decrease water supply by mid-century. With projected increase (0.70-1.03°C) in spring temperature and reduction (6-55%) in winter precipitation, the upper Zayandeh-Rud sub-basin, the main source of renewable water supply, will likely become warmer and drier. In the lower sub-basin, 1.1-1.5°C increase in temperature and 11-31% decrease in annual precipitation are likely. A system dynamics model was used to analyze adaptation strategies taking into account feedbacks between water resources development and biophysical and socioeconomic sub-systems. Results suggest that infrastructural improvements, rigorous water demand management (e.g., replacing high water demand crops such as rice, corn, and alfalfa), and ecosystem-based regulatory prioritization, complemented by supply augmentation can temporarily alleviate water stress in a basin that is essentially governed by the Limits to Growth archetype.

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“…Although a warmer climate will be inconvenient and cause modest costs, if well managed, climate change alone seems unlikely to cause catastrophe [2,12]. Shifting drought water storage from surface reservoirs to aquifers can also make substantially more storage capacity available for winter flood management [13].…”

Section: Managing Floods In Californiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Management in California

Lund

2012

Water

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California's development and success have been shaped by its ability to manage floods. This management has varied over the history of California's economic and political development and continues in various forms today. California will always have flood problems. A range of options are available to aid in flood management problems and have been used over time. These options can be contrasted with flood management elsewhere and the types of options used to manage other types of hazards in California, such as earthquakes, wildfires, and droughts. In the future, flood management in California will require greater reliance on local funding and leadership, reflecting diminished federal and state funding, with more effective state and federal guidance. Effective flood management will also tend to integrate flood management with actions to achieve environmental and other water supply objectives, both to gain revenues from a broader range of beneficiaries as well as to make more efficient use of land and water in a state where both are often scarce.

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Adapting California’s water system to warm vs. dry climates

Cited by 70 publications

References 34 publications

Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

Flood Management in California

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