Adapting to Sea Level Rise

Nicholls, Robert J.

doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-396483-0.00009-1

Cited by 15 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…But the ecological functionality of the flyways that have evolved over millennia are now threatened [6,8,9,41,42]. Asia's coastal areas are among the most densely populated areas, and urban and industrial infrastructure is rapidly expanding at the expense of the natural ecosystems disregarding the importance of the ecosystem services these wetlands provide and the longer term economic and social consequences of losing them [5,8,[43][44][45][46]. Over 80% of East and Southeast Asia's wetlands are now classified as threatened and nearly half of all tidal flats have already been lost [4].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A climate adaptation strategy for Mai Po Inner Deep Bay Ramsar site: Steppingstone to climate proofing the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

Wikramanayake¹,

Or²,

Costa

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

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The ecological functionality of the East Asian-Australasian Flyway is threatened by the loss of wetlands which provide staging and wintering sites for migrating waterbirds. The disappearance of wetland ecosystems due to coastal development prevents birds from completing their migrations, resulting in population declines, and even an eventual collapse of the migration phenomenon. Coastal wetlands are also under threat from global climate change and its consequences, notably sea level rise (SLR), extreme storm events, and accompanying wave and tidal surges. The impacts of SLR are compounded by coastal subsidence and decreasing sedimentation, which can result from coastal development. Thus, important wetlands along the flyway should be assessed for the impacts of climate change and coastal subsidence to plan and implement proactive climate adaptation strategies that include habitat migration and possibility of coastal squeeze. We modelled the impacts of climate change and decreasing sedimentation rates on important bird habitats in the Mai Po Inner Deep Bay Ramsar site to support a climate adaptation strategy that will continue to host migratory birds. Located in the Inner Deep Bay of the Pearl River estuary, Mai Po's tidal flats, coastal mangroves, marshes, and fishponds provide habitat for over 80,000 wintering and passage waterbirds. We applied the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to simulate habitat conversion under two SLR scenarios (1.5m and 2.0m) for 2050, 2075, and 2100 for four accretion rates (2mm/yr, 4 mm/yr, 8 mm/yr, 15 mm/yr). The results showed no discernible impact to habitats until after 2075, but projections for 2100 show that the mangroves, marshes and tidal flats could be impacted in almost all scenarios of SLR and accretion. Under a 1.5m SLR scenario, even at low tide, if accretion levels decrease to 4 mm/yr, the tidal flats will be inundated and with a 2 mm/yr accretion the mangroves will also be inundated. Thus, important shorebird habitats will be lost. During high tide the ponds inside the nature reserve, which are intensively managed to provide high tide roosting sites and other habitats for waterbirds, will also be inundated. Thus, with a 1.5m SLR and declining sedimentation the migratory shorebirds will lose habitat, including the high tide roosting habitats inside the nature reserve. The model also indicates that the fishponds further inland in the

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A climate adaptation strategy for Mai Po Inner Deep Bay Ramsar site: Steppingstone to climate proofing the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

Wikramanayake¹,

Or²,

Costa

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

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“…The chapters, by Devoy (in this volume) and Nicholls (2015), center exclusively on sea level change (SLC), which is a well-studied topic that still requires substantial additional research. The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (Church et al, 2013) reports that the current rate of sea level rise will continue or accelerate through the twenty-first century.…”

Section: Sea Level Risementioning

confidence: 99%

Perspectives on Coastal and Marine Hazards and Disasters

Ellis

Sherman

2015

Coastal and Marine Hazards, Risks, and Disasters

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“…Land claim and raising differs to land reclamation which implies the land once belonged to the sea, or where a wetland was drained to form a drier area of land, and subsequently protected, such as by a dike. As well as adapting to flooding, land raising can create land where it is needed, satisfying two needs at once (Nicholls, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land raising as a solution to sea‐level rise: An analysis of coastal flooding on an artificial island in the Maldives

Brown

Wadey

Nicholls

et al. 2019

J Flood Risk Management

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The Maldives (land elevation approximately 1 m above mean sea level) is often associated with the threat of rising sea levels. Land scarcity due to population pressure is also a major issue. In the late 1990s a new 1.9km 2 1.8 m high artificial island, Hulhumalé was created for urban expansion, including an allowance for sea-level rise. This paper assesses flood exposure through an extreme water level scenario on Hulhumalé taking into account sea-level rise and analyses potential adaptation options to extend island life. Results indicate that overtopping is likely to occur with 0.6 ± 0.2 m of sea-level rise, with more severe, widespread flooding with 0.9 ± 0.2 m of sea-level rise. If the Paris Agreement goals are met, flooding is not anticipated this century. However, under a non-mitigation scenario, flooding could occur by the 2090s. Building seawalls 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m high could delay flooding for 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6 m of sea-level rise, respectively. Land raising has been successful in Hulhumalé in reducing flood risk simultaneous to addressing development needs. Whilst new land claim and raising can be cost-effective, raising developed land provides greater challenges, such as timeliness with respect to infrastructure design lives or financial costs. Thus the transferability and long-term benefits of land raising requires further consideration. K E Y W O R D Sadaptation, defence, flooding, island, land claim, sea-level rise

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Adapting to Sea Level Rise

Cited by 15 publications

References 44 publications

A climate adaptation strategy for Mai Po Inner Deep Bay Ramsar site: Steppingstone to climate proofing the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

A climate adaptation strategy for Mai Po Inner Deep Bay Ramsar site: Steppingstone to climate proofing the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

Perspectives on Coastal and Marine Hazards and Disasters

Land raising as a solution to sea‐level rise: An analysis of coastal flooding on an artificial island in the Maldives

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