Perspectives on Coastal and Marine Hazards and Disasters

Ellis, Jean T.; Sherman, Douglas J.

doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-396483-0.00001-7

Cited by 20 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…storm surge and winds from tropical storms), or to higher-frequency, low intensity events (e.g. sea level rise due to El Niño events) [ 16 , 42 , 43 ]. Table 1 contains a description of the coastal hazards variables included in the study.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI): A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean

et al. 2017

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As the world’s population grows to a projected 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low-lying areas exposed to coastal hazards is projected to increase. Critical infrastructure and valuable assets continue to be placed in vulnerable areas, and in recent years, millions of people have been displaced by natural hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm’s way. Risks related to natural hazards are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards, the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system and its exposure to such hazards. Moreover, these risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including poorly planned urban development, income inequality, and poverty. This study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (Self Organizing Maps and K-Means) and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) on a comparative scale. The proposed method meets multiple objectives, including the identification of hotspots and key drivers of coastal risk, and the ability to process large-volume multidimensional and multivariate datasets, effectively reducing sixteen variables related to coastal hazards, geographic exposure, and socioeconomic vulnerability, into a single index. Our results demonstrate that in LAC, more than 500,000 people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems) and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. Hotspot locations of coastal risk, identified by the proposed Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI), contain more than 300,00 people and include: El Oro, Ecuador; Sinaloa, Mexico; Usulutan, El Salvador; and Chiapas, Mexico. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only focus on developing coastal defenses, but also on improving practices and policies related to urban development, agricultural land use, and conservation, as well as ameliorating socioeconomic conditions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI): A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean

et al. 2017

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“…Tidal water levels are impacted by many environmental characteristics, including the geometry of the coastline, bathymetry, bottom friction/dissipation effects, reflection of the wave near the head of the bay (Lee et al, 2017) as well as prevailing remote winds and ocean currents. Storm surge, while also impacted by these factors, is additionally influenced by characteristics of the storm itself, such as storm size and direction of travel, duration, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and wind direction relative to the coastline (Ellis and Sherman, 2015;National Hurricane Center, 2019). Coastal flood levels in this region are the net effect of numerous complex hydrodynamics at play.…”

Section: Study Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Skew Surge and Storm Tides of Tropical Cyclones in the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays for 1980–2019

2021

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Coastal flooding poses the greatest threat to human life and is often the most common source of damage from coastal storms. From 1980 to 2020, the top 6, and 17 of the top 25, costliest natural disasters in the U.S. were caused by coastal storms, most of these tropical systems. The Delaware and Chesapeake Bays, two of the largest and most densely populated estuaries in the U.S. located in the Mid-Atlantic coastal region, have been significantly impacted by strong tropical cyclones in recent decades, notably Hurricanes Isabel (2003), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). Current scenarios of future climate project an increase in major hurricanes and the continued rise of sea levels, amplifying coastal flooding threat. We look at all North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TC) in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database that came within 750 km of the Delmarva Peninsula from 1980 to 2019. For each TC, skew surge and storm tide are computed at 12 NOAA tide gauges throughout the two bays. Spatial variability of the detrended and normalized skew surge is investigated through cross-correlations, regional storm rankings, and comparison to storm tracks. We find Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Isabel (2003) had the largest surge impact on the Delaware and Chesapeake Bay, respectively. Surge response to TCs in upper and lower bay regions are more similar across bays than to the opposing region in their own bay. TCs that impacted lower bay more than upper bay regions tended to stay offshore east of Delmarva, whereas TCs that impacted upper bay regions tended to stay to the west of Delmarva. Although tropical cyclones are multi-hazard weather events, there continues to be a need to improve storm surge forecasting and implement strategies to minimize the damage of coastal flooding. Results from this analysis can provide insight on the potential regional impacts of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones in the Mid-Atlantic.

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“…Tidal water levels and storm surges are influenced by the geomorphological environment, geometry of the coastline, bathymetry, bottom friction/dissipation effects, and reflection of the wave near the head of the bay (Lee et al, 2017). Storm surge is additionally influenced by storm size and direction of travel, duration, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and wind direction relative to the coastline (Ellis and Sherman, 2015). The Delaware Bay has a classical funnel shape, with pockets of deep scour in the wider lower bay, amplifying tidal range and storm surge in the northern regions (Wong and Münchow, 1995;Lee et al, 2017;Ross et al, 2017).…”

Section: Study Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of Return Levels for Extreme Skew Surge Coastal Flooding Events in the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays for 1980–2019

Callahan

Leathers

2021

Front. Clim.

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Extreme storm surges can overwhelm many coastal flooding protection measures in place and cause severe damages to private communities, public infrastructure, and natural ecosystems. In the US Mid-Atlantic, a highly developed and commercially active region, coastal flooding is one of the most significant natural hazards and a year-round threat from both tropical and extra-tropical cyclones. Mean sea levels and high-tide flood frequency has increased significantly in recent years, and major storms are projected to increase into the foreseeable future. We estimate extreme surges using hourly water level data and harmonic analysis for 1980–2019 at 12 NOAA tide gauges in and around the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays. Return levels (RLs) are computed for 1.1, 3, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100-year return periods using stationary extreme value analysis on detrended skew surges. Two traditional approaches are investigated, Block Maxima fit to General Extreme Value distribution and Points-Over-Threshold fit to Generalized Pareto distribution, although with two important enhancements. First, the GEV r-largest order statistics distribution is used; a modified version of the GEV distribution that allows for multiple maximum values per year. Second, a systematic procedure is used to select the optimum value for r (for the BM/GEVr approach) and the threshold (for the POT/GP approach) at each tide gauge separately. RLs have similar magnitudes and spatial patterns from both methods, with BM/GEVr resulting in generally larger 100-year and smaller 1.1-year RLs. Maximum values are found at the Lewes (Delaware Bay) and Sewells Point (Chesapeake Bay) tide gauges, both located in the southwest region of their respective bays. Minimum values are found toward the central bay regions. In the Delaware Bay, the POT/GP approach is consistent and results in narrower uncertainty bands whereas the results are mixed for the Chesapeake. Results from this study aim to increase reliability of projections of extreme water levels due to extreme storms and ultimately help in long-term planning of mitigation and implementation of adaptation measures.

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Perspectives on Coastal and Marine Hazards and Disasters

Cited by 20 publications

References 19 publications

Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI): A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean

Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI): A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean

Skew Surge and Storm Tides of Tropical Cyclones in the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays for 1980–2019

Estimation of Return Levels for Extreme Skew Surge Coastal Flooding Events in the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays for 1980–2019

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