Adaptive dynamics on an environmental gradient that changes over a geological time-scale

Geritz, Stefan A.H.; Gyllenberg, Mats; Toivonen, Jaakko

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.03.036

Cited by 11 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Based on a different modelling strategy, a similar conclusion was reached by Fortelius et al . (), wo found that the rate of environmental change relative to the rate at which populations are able to reach an evolutionarily stable state has a substantial effect on extinction, speciation, and trait polymorphism. They showed that the opening of new niches (equivalent to our ecometric zones) and the loss of existing ones affect patterns of extinction and speciation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Using a different modelling strategy, Fortelius et al . () recently showed that speciation is more likely to occur under some environmental configurations than others, especially when change in the environmental gradient is considered, and the process is closely linked to the amount of within‐species trait polymorphism.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In reality, model runs that produced geographically widespread, phenotypically homogeneous species with high rates of gene flow would not likely result in peripheral isolate populations, which would inhibit speciation and would result in lower diversity. Using a different modelling strategy, Fortelius et al (2015) recently showed that speciation is more likely to occur under some environmental configurations than others, especially when change in the environmental gradient is considered, and the process is closely linked to the amount of within-species trait polymorphism.…”

Section: Patterningmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Processes of ecometric patterning: modelling functional traits, environments, and clade dynamics in deep time

Polly

Lawing

Eronen

et al. 2015

Biol. J. Linn. Soc.

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Ecometric patterning is community‐level sorting of functional traits along environmental gradients that arises historically by geographic sorting, trait evolution, and extinction. We developed a stochastic model to explore how ecometric patterns and clade dynamics emerge from microevolutionary processes. Strong selection, high probability of extirpation, and high heritability led to strong ecometric patterning, but high rates of dispersal and weak selection do not. Phylogenetic structuring arose only when selection intensity, dispersal, and extirpation are all high. Ancestry and environmental geography produced historical effects on patterns of trait evolution and local diversity of species, but ecometric patterns appeared to be largely deterministic. Phylogenetic trait correlations and clade sorting appear to arise more easily in changing environments than static ones. Microevolutionary parameters and historical factors both affect ecometric lag time and thus balance between extinction, adaptation, and geographic reorganization as responses to climate change.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Patterningmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Processes of ecometric patterning: modelling functional traits, environments, and clade dynamics in deep time

Polly

Lawing

Eronen

et al. 2015

Biol. J. Linn. Soc.

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“…Nonetheless, the existing experimental and theoretical work suggests that the RoC of environmental variables likely influences community‐level responses. In most of these studies, slower RoCs tended to alleviate negative treatment effects, for example, on competitive interactions (Fortelius et al ., 2015a, 2015b), mutualistic interactions (Klironomos et al ., 2005) and biodiversity (De Blasio et al ., 2015) (although see Limberger et al ., 2014). Future studies should focus on the effects of RoCs in community ecology.…”

Section: Trends At Each Level Of Ecological Organizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rate of environmental change across scales in ecology

et al. 2020

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The rate of change (RoC) of environmental drivers matters: biotic and abiotic components respond differently when faced with a fast or slow change in their environment. This phenomenon occurs across spatial scales and thus levels of ecological organization. We investigated the RoC of environmental drivers in the ecological literature and examined publication trends across ecological levels, including prevalent types of evidence and drivers. Research interest in environmental driver RoC has increased over time (particularly in the last decade), however, the amount of research and type of studies were not equally distributed across levels of organization and different subfields of ecology use temporal terminology (e.g. ‘abrupt’ and ‘gradual’) differently, making it difficult to compare studies. At the level of individual organisms, evidence indicates that responses and underlying mechanisms are different when environmental driver treatments are applied at different rates, thus we propose including a time dimension into reaction norms. There is much less experimental evidence at higher levels of ecological organization (i.e. population, community, ecosystem), although theoretical work at the population level indicates the importance of RoC for evolutionary responses. We identified very few studies at the community and ecosystem levels, although existing evidence indicates that driver RoC is important at these scales and potentially could be particularly important for some processes, such as community stability and cascade effects. We recommend shifting from a categorical (e.g. abrupt versus gradual) to a quantitative and continuous (e.g. °C/h) RoC framework and explicit reporting of RoC parameters, including magnitude, duration and start and end points to ease cross‐scale synthesis and alleviate ambiguity. Understanding how driver RoC affects individuals, populations, communities and ecosystems, and furthermore how these effects can feed back between levels is critical to making improved predictions about ecological responses to global change drivers. The application of a unified quantitative RoC framework for ecological studies investigating environmental driver RoC will both allow cross‐scale synthesis to be accomplished more easily and has the potential for the generation of novel hypotheses.

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“…The ecology of the periodical cicadas and how the long, synchronous, and prime-numbered life cycles evolved has been the subject of many studies (e.g., Alexander and Moore 1962;Dybas and Davis 1962;Lloyd 1962, 1974;Dybas 1966a, 1966b;White and Lloyd 1975;Karban 1984;Williams and Simon 1995;Marshall and Cooley 2000;Sota et al 2013). In this article, we demonstrate how two interesting evolutionary mechanisms that perhaps have not received enough attention so far-namely, hysteresis (Kisdi and Geritz 1999;Ronce and Kirkpatrick 2001;Fortelius et al 2015;Osmond and Klausmeier 2017) and ratchet mechanisms (Levinton 2001;Wahl 2002;Valkenburgh 2007;Ritterskamp et al 2016)-could both have contributed to the evolution of periodicity and long life cycles in the Magicicada.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 68%

Evolutionary Hysteresis and Ratchets in the Evolution of Periodical Cicadas

Toivonen

Fromhage

2019

The American Naturalist

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It has been previously hypothesized that the perfectly synchronized mass emergence of periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) evolved as a result of a switch from size-based to age-based emergence. In the former case, cicada nymphs emerge immediately (at the first opportunity) on reaching maturity, whereas in the latter case, nymphs wait in order to emerge at a specific age. Here we use an individualbased model to simulate the cicada life cycle and to study the evolution of periodicity. We find that if age-based emergence evolves in a constant abiotic environment, it typically results in a population that is protoperiodic, and synchronous emergence of the whole population is not achieved. However, perfect periodicity and synchronous emergence can be attained, if the abiotic environment changes back and forth between favorable and unfavorable conditions (hysteresis). Furthermore, once age-based emergence evolves, generally it can only be invaded by other age-based emergence strategies with longer cycle lengths (evolutionary ratchet). Together, these mechanisms promote the evolution of long periodic life cycles and synchronous emergence in the Magicicada. We discuss how our results connect to previous theories and recent phylogenetic studies on Magicicada evolution.

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Adaptive dynamics on an environmental gradient that changes over a geological time-scale

Cited by 11 publications

References 28 publications

Processes of ecometric patterning: modelling functional traits, environments, and clade dynamics in deep time

Processes of ecometric patterning: modelling functional traits, environments, and clade dynamics in deep time

Rate of environmental change across scales in ecology

Evolutionary Hysteresis and Ratchets in the Evolution of Periodical Cicadas

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