Adaptive modeling of reliability properties for control and supervision purposes

Abstract

Modeling of reliability characteristics typically assumes that components and systems fail if a certain individual damage level is exceeded. Every (mechanical) system damage increases irreversibly due to employed loading and (mechanical) stress, respectively. The main issue of damage estimation is adequate determination of the actual state-of-damage. Several mathematical modeling approaches are known in the literature, focusing on the task of how loading effects damage progression (e.g., Wöhler, 1870) for wear processes. Those models are only valid for specific loading conditions, a priori assumptions, set points, etc. This contribution proposes a general model, covering adequately the deterioration of a set of comparable systems under comparable loading. The main goal of this contribution is to derive the loading-damage connection directly from observation without assuming any damage models at the outset. Moreover, the connection is not investigated in detail (e.g., to examine the changes in material, etc.) but only approximated with a probabilistic approach. The idea is subdivided into two phases: A problem-specific relation between loading applied (to a structure, which contributes to the stress) and failure is derived from simulation, where a probabilistic approach only assumes a distribution function. Subsequently, an adequate general model is set up to describe deterioration progression. The scheme will be shown through simulation-based results and can be used for estimation of the remaining useful life and predictive maintenance/control.

Vibration-Based Structural Damage Detection Techniques: A Review

“…Usually, the extent of damage and damage location are ascertained simultaneously. Stage 4 is more complex and is often connected with fracture mechanics, structural assessment, and fatigue-life analysis, which demands probabilistic failure models based on the history of component failure (Dettmann and Soeffker 2011).…”

The State-of-the-Art on Framework of Vibration-Based Structural Damage Identification for Decision Making

“…The most sophisticated level is Level 4, i.e., predicting the structural remaining lifetime and making decisions based on damage diagnosis results. Level 4 is generally associated with the fields of fracture mechanics, fatigue-life analysis, and structural assessment, which requires the combination of global structural models with local damage models to predict the evolution of damage, or the probabilistic failure models based on previously failed or damaged components [14], etc. Figure 1 demonstrates the procedure of damage identification for the four levels.…”