Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations

Prein, Andreas F.; Gobiet, Andreas; Suklitsch, Martin; Truhetz, Heimo; Awan, N. K.; Keuler, Klaus; Georgievski, Goran

doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1744-6

Cited by 265 publications

(288 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Results with convection-permitting simulations indicate improved spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy hourly events (Ban et al 2014;Chan et al 2014b), and a better scaling with temperature (Ban et al 2014). Further, the convection-permitting approach improves the simulation of the diurnal cycle of summer precipitation (Hohenegger et al 2008;Prein et al 2013). Tölle et al (2014) demonstrated that the influence of land use/cover change is more pronounced when considering the convection-permitting scale, suggesting that local effects of land management are more important than previously thought.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 87%

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Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Tölle

Schefczyk

Gutjahr

2017

Theor Appl Climatol

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A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5-and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 87%

“…However, at such resolutions, deep convection is parameterized and leads to an overestimation of the net heat transport, rainfall rates, and the net strength of deep convection systems (Prein et al 2013). As a result, such resolutions are still too coarse to capture climate variability at sub-grid scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Tölle

Schefczyk

Gutjahr

2017

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…Brockhaus et al 2008;Baldauf et al 2011;Fosser et al 2015). Reaching convection-permitting resolutions allows not only to eliminate a major source of uncertainties and errors, but also to improve the representation of hourly precipitation intensity and spatial distribution (Prein et al 2013;Fosser et al 2015) as well as the representation of surface fluxes (Tölle et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?

Fosser

Khodayar²,

Berg

2016

Clim Dyn

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probably due to large-scale forced convection is found when considering only the most extreme events (above 50 mm/day). In this case, even the diurnal cycles of precipitation and convection-related indices are similar between resolutions, leading to the conclusion that the 7 km model sufficiently resolves the most extreme convective events. In this region and time periods, the 7 km resolution is deemed sufficient for most assessments of near future precipitation change. However, conclusions could be dependent on the characteristics of the region of investigation.

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“…Katragkou et al (2015), Kotlarski et al (2014) and Prein et al (2016). The model configurations for the convection-permitting (3 km grid spacing) simulations in the GAR 15 are based on experiences from previous sensitivity experiments (Suklitsch et al 2011;Awan et al 2011;Prein et al 2013;Prein et al 2015). Our RCMs differ from their coarser resolved counterparts (EURO-CORDEX) insofar that the parametrization for deep-convection has been turned off in the GAR.…”

Section: Study Area and Observation Data 20mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their bandwidths are large and (spatial and temporal) correlation coefficients are poor, when they are compared to highly resolved observation data (e.g. 25 Prein et al, 2013). This makes bias correction techniques indispensable, even if deep convection becomes resolved by RCMs.…”

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confidence: 99%

Convection-permitting regional climate simulations for representing floods in small and medium sized catchments in the Eastern Alps

Reszler¹,

Switanek²,

Truhetz³

2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Small scale floods are a consequence of high precipitation rates in small areas that can occur along frontal activity and convective storms. This situation is expected to become more severe due to a warming climate, when single precipitation events resulting from deep convection become more intense ("Super Clausius-Clapeyron effect"). Regional climate model (RCM) evaluations and inter-comparisons have shown that there is evidence that an increase in regional climate model 10 resolution and in particular, at the convection permitting scale, will lead to a better representation of the spatial and temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation at small and medium scales. In this paper, the benefit of grid size reduction and bias correction in climate models are evaluated in their ability to properly represent flood generation in small and medium sized catchments. The climate models are coupled with a distributed hydrological model. The study area is the Eastern Alps, where small scale storms often occur along with heterogeneous rainfall distributions leading to a very local flash flood 15 generation. The work is carried out in a small multi-model (ensemble) framework using two different RCMs (CCLM and WRF) in different grid sizes. Bias correction is performed by the use of the novel Scaled Distribution Mapping (SDM) method. The results show, that for small catchments (< 200 km²) a resolution of 3 km is essential to accurately simulate the magnitude of flood events. Flood frequency and seasonality are both represented well in all catchments. In the larger catchments resolutions of 12.5 km and 50 km already yield statistically satisfying results, but poor results regarding 20 seasonality. Also, due to the short response times in the small sub-catchments a time step of 1 hour is required. In all setups a bias still exists in precipitation and temperature, which sometimes leads to unrealistic hydrological conditions demonstrating the necessity of bias correction. The results show the added value of reducing grid size and bias correction in climate models that can be used to model flood mechanisms in small and medium sized catchments.

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Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations

Cited by 265 publications

References 40 publications

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?

Convection-permitting regional climate simulations for representing floods in small and medium sized catchments in the Eastern Alps

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