“…The governing equation of the backward probability model can be derived by applying the adjoint method to the forward ADE. The adjoint method evaluates the sensitivity of a system state (e.g., head and concentration) with respect to changes in a system parameter (e.g., hydraulic parameters, Sykes et al, ; recharge areas, Jyrkama & Sykes, ; and river stage, Griebling & Neupauer, ). Similarly, the backward probability model solves the adjoint state of concentration, , which corresponds to the marginal sensitivity of the concentration (or system state) to the source mass (or system parameter) (Neupauer & Wilson, ): where τ is the backward time (T) representing an amount of time prior to a contaminant detection (or observation) at τ obs ( τ = 0), which corresponds to t 3 in Figure a.…”