Advanced Techniques for Modeling Avian Nest Survival

Dinsmore, Stephen J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, Fritz L.

doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[3476:atfman]2.0.co;2

Cited by 771 publications

(583 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…We estimated female sage-grouse survival with the nest survival model in MARK [36,37] using the RMark package [38] as an interface within R 3.1.2 [39]. Because the control area data collection started in the fall of 2010, we used treatment area data also beginning at this time.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Better living through conifer removal: A demographic analysis of sage-grouse vital rates

et al. 2017

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Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) obligate wildlife species such as the imperiled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) face numerous threats including altered ecosystem processes that have led to conifer expansion into shrub-steppe. Conifer removal is accelerating despite a lack of empirical evidence on grouse population response. Using a before-after-control-impact design at the landscape scale, we evaluated effects of conifer removal on two important demographic parameters, annual survival of females and nest survival, by monitoring 219 female sage-grouse and 225 nests in the northern Great Basin from 2010 to 2014. Estimates from the best treatment models showed positive trends in the treatment area relative to the control area resulting in an increase of 6.6% annual female survival and 18.8% nest survival relative to the control area by 2014. Using stochastic simulations of our estimates and published demographics, we estimated a 25% increase in the population growth rate in the treatment area relative to the control area. This is the first study to link sage-grouse demographics with conifer removal and supports recommendations to actively manage conifer expansion for sage-grouse conservation. Sage-grouse have become a primary catalyst for conservation funding to address conifer expansion in the West, and these findings have important implications for other ecosystem services being generated on the wings of species conservation.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We estimated daily nest survival with the nest survival model in MARK [36,37] using the RMark package [38] as an interface within R 3.1.2 [39]. For the BACI analysis, we used only nests from 2011 onward because this was the first nest season of data collection in the control area.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Better living through conifer removal: A demographic analysis of sage-grouse vital rates

et al. 2017

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“…This prevented us from using standard nest-survival methods based on generalized linear models (Dinsmore, White & Knopf, 2002; Hazler, 2004), which do not allow for a proper treatment of spatial autocorrelation. Therefore, we performed a two-step analysis to assess the relationship between habitat preferences and nest survival using methods suited to deal with spatially autocorrelated data.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We built species-specific GLS models with the number of days a nest survived as the dependent variable, and year, initiation date and habitat factors as covariates. In precocial species, such as little crake and water rail, it is known that older nests, i.e., those that have survived more days, have higher survival rates than younger nests because nests located in more risky sites will be depredated in early stages (Klett & Johnson, 1982; Dinsmore, White & Knopf, 2002). In our analysis, we used only nests found during the egg laying period, which allowed us to correctly estimate the number of survived days for each nest, from the nest initiation day (the day when the first egg was laid) to the day when chicks hatched or clutch was depredated.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The adaptive value of habitat preferences from a multi-scale spatial perspective: insights from marsh-nesting avian species

Jedlikowski

Brambilla

2017

PeerJ

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BackgroundHabitat selection and its adaptive outcomes are crucial features for animal life-history strategies. Nevertheless, congruence between habitat preferences and breeding success has been rarely demonstrated, which may result from the single-scale evaluation of animal choices. As habitat selection is a complex multi-scale process in many groups of animal species, investigating adaptiveness of habitat selection in a multi-scale framework is crucial. In this study, we explore whether habitat preferences acting at different spatial scales enhance the fitness of bird species, and check the appropriateness of single vs. multi-scale models. We expected that variables found to be more important for habitat selection at individual scale(s), would coherently play a major role in affecting nest survival at the same scale(s).MethodsWe considered habitat preferences of two Rallidae species, little crake (Zapornia parva) and water rail (Rallus aquaticus), at three spatial scales (landscape, territory, and nest-site) and related them to nest survival. Single-scale versus multi-scale models (GLS and glmmPQL) were compared to check which model better described adaptiveness of habitat preferences. Consistency between the effect of variables on habitat selection and on nest survival was checked to investigate their adaptive value.ResultsIn both species, multi-scale models for nest survival were more supported than single-scale ones. In little crake, the multi-scale model indicated vegetation density and water depth at the territory scale, as well as vegetation height at nest-site scale, as the most important variables. The first two variables were among the most important for nest survival and habitat selection, and the coherent effects suggested the adaptive value of habitat preferences. In water rail, the multi-scale model of nest survival showed vegetation density at territory scale and extent of emergent vegetation within landscape scale as the most important ones, although we found a consistent effect with the habitat selection model (and hence evidence for adaptiveness) only for the former.DiscussionOur work suggests caution when interpreting adaptiveness of habitat preferences at a single spatial scale because such an approach may under- or over-estimate the importance of habitat factors. As an example, we found evidence only for a weak effect of water depth at territory scale on little crake nest survival; however, according to the multi-scale analysis, such effect turned out to be important and appeared highly adaptive. Therefore, multi-scale approaches to the study of adaptive explanations for habitat selection mechanisms should be promoted.

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“…The logistic-exposure method has been widely used to calculate daily nest survival (Dinsmore et al 2002, Rotella et al 2004, Shaffer 2004. We modeled the relationship between DCS and both time-varying (values changed among intervals) and time-invariant (variables changed among chicks but not intervals) covariates.…”

Section: Modeling Daily Chick Survival Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Whooping craneGrus americanachick mortality and management intervention

King¹,

Espenshade²,

Kirkpatrick-Wahl³

et al. 2013

Wildlife Biology

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Translocation of captive-reared animals is widely used as a tool for endangered species recovery. Frequently, translocated populations have relatively low initial productivity, requiring management intervention. A translocated population of whooping cranes Grus americana in central Wisconsin is such a case. We examined chick mortality for this population and used daily chick survival rates as our response variable to model several parameters including phenology, chick age, energetics and parent age and experience. We also developed and evaluated adoption techniques using sandhill cranes Grus canadensis to mitigate the effects of high chick mortality and increase the probability of fledging. Our results illustrate the challenges that translocated populations can face as they encounter novel breeding conditions. We found that whooping crane daily chick survival was relatively low and most mortality events occurred within the first 20 days. Our results indicated that variables related to age of the parents as well as the pair's previous chick rearing experience were useful for predicting daily chick survival. We found that sandhill crane foster parents readily accepted replacement chicks. We also demonstrated adopted chicks acceptance of foster parents and that the chicks' source (captive-born vs wild-born) did not affect success of the adoption. Chick adoption provides several management options that could be used to bypass the period when chicks experience the greatest mortality. Reducing chick mortality and developing techniques to increase the number of fledged chicks is paramount for whooping crane recovery as well as the recovery of other endangered bird species.

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Advanced Techniques for Modeling Avian Nest Survival

Cited by 771 publications

References 15 publications

Better living through conifer removal: A demographic analysis of sage-grouse vital rates

Better living through conifer removal: A demographic analysis of sage-grouse vital rates

The adaptive value of habitat preferences from a multi-scale spatial perspective: insights from marsh-nesting avian species

Whooping craneGrus americanachick mortality and management intervention

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