Advances in real–time flood forecasting

Abstract

A shorter version of this report has been published (Young, 2002a)The report discusses the modelling of rainfall-flow (rainfall-runoff) and flow routing processes in river systems within the context of real-time flood forecasting. It is argued that deterministic, reductionist (or 'bottom-up') models are inappropriate for real-time forecasting because of the inherent uncertainty that characterizes river catchment dynamics and the problems of model over-parametrization. The advantages of alternative, efficiently parameterized Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) models, identified and estimated using statistical methods, are discussed. It is shown that such models are in an ideal form for incorporation in a real-time, adaptive data assimilation and forecasting system based on recursive state space estimation (an adaptive version of the stochastic Kalman Filter algorithm). An illustrative example, based on the analysis of a limited set of hourly rainfall-flow data from the River Hodder in NW England, demonstrates the utility of this methodology and illustrates the advantages of incorporating real-time state and parameter adaption.

A manifesto for the equifinality thesis

“…Nor do they often search for reduced dimensionality models that would provide equally good predictions but which might be more robustly estimated (e.g. Young, 2002). Nor do they often consider the case where the "optimal" model is not really acceptable (see, for example, Freer et al, 2002); it is, after all, the best available.…”

The usability of 250 m resolution data from the UK Meteorological Office Unified Model as input data for a hydrological model

“…The hydrological forecasts, however were carried out without updation using observed discharges (see e.g. Krzysztofowicz, 1999;Young, 2002;or Romanowicz et al, 2006 for adaptive forecasting algorithms). The forecasting plots in Figures 10-17 are constructed as follows.…”

Hypothetico‐inductive data‐based mechanistic modeling of hydrological systems

“…[3] As the present author [see e.g., Young, 2002Young, , 2011aYoung, , 2011b has argued, this hypothetico-deductive philosophy is largely a creature of the twentieth century and is linked strongly with laboratory science and the ability to carry out planned experimentation. Prior to this, the alternative ''inductive'' approach was the cornerstone of scientific investigation or ''natural philosophy,'' as it was referred to at the time.…”